Economists believe that the ECB will raise interest rates next week, but there will be no further rate hikes thereafter. This result is far more dovish than what the current market is betting on. The vast majority of respondents to the Bloomberg survey expect deposit interest rates to be raised by 25 basis points to 2.5% next Thursday and remain at that level until 2027. Traders, on the other hand, set prices, and it is expected that interest rates will be raised about three times by the middle of next year. This disagreement highlights the difficulties faced by the ECB in calibrating monetary policy: renewed fighting in the Middle East has once again impacted the energy market. The price of oil is approaching $100 per barrel, and the price of natural gas has soared to a high level since 2023. Although high inflation has yet to show signs of solidification, various risks are still emerging.

Economists believe that the ECB will raise interest rates next week, but there will be no further rate hikes thereafter. This result is far more dovish than what the current market is betting on. The vast majority of respondents to the Bloomberg survey expect deposit interest rates to be raised by 25 basis points to 2.5% next Thursday and remain at that level until 2027. Traders, on the other hand, set prices, and it is expected that interest rates will be raised about three times by the middle of next year. This disagreement highlights the difficulties faced by the ECB in calibrating monetary policy: renewed fighting in the Middle East has once again impacted the energy market. The price of oil is approaching $100 per barrel, and the price of natural gas has soared to a high level since 2023. Although high inflation has yet to show signs of solidification, various risks are still emerging.