The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the US-Iran conflict has been going on for more than half a year, and recently the situation is once again showing signs of heating up. Exploring the reasons for the rise, we believe that the rise of hardliners within Iran has a period of validity as a bargaining chip, so there is an incentive to adopt an offensive strategy before deterrence weakens, in exchange for the US to make concessions on more strategic issues. Looking ahead to the next situation, an all-out war is still not the benchmark scenario, but the probability that low-intensity clashes will be repeated and misjudged will escalate is rising. In a situation where the US-Iran stalemate is difficult to resolve, even if Iran and Oman reach a navigation agreement, it will be difficult to resolve the risk of navigation through the strait. In the future, it is necessary to observe signs of significant changes in internal political pressure between the US and Iran before substantial concessions can be triggered, such as the urgent Republican Senate election situation, or internal unrest caused by economic pressure on Iran. Analyzing the market impact, the current international crude oil futures pricing does not fully reflect the challenges of the situation in the Middle East and the risk of a shortage of refined oil products. The situation in the Middle East has become a booster for many risk narratives overseas, and will gradually exacerbate overseas monetary policy dilemmas and debt dilemmas. It is expected that the above key signals will still need to be reversed.

The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the US-Iran conflict has been going on for more than half a year, and recently the situation is once again showing signs of heating up. Exploring the reasons for the rise, we believe that the rise of hardliners within Iran has a period of validity as a bargaining chip, so there is an incentive to adopt an offensive strategy before deterrence weakens in exchange for the US to make concessions on more strategic issues. Looking ahead to the next situation, an all-out war is still not the benchmark scenario, but the probability that low-intensity clashes will be repeated and misjudged will escalate is rising. In a situation where the US-Iran stalemate is difficult to resolve, even if Iran and Oman reach a navigation agreement, it will be difficult to resolve the risk of navigation through the strait. In the future, it is necessary to observe signs of significant changes in internal political pressure between the US and Iran before substantial concessions can be triggered, such as the urgent Republican Senate election situation, or internal unrest caused by economic pressure on Iran. Analyzing the market impact, the current international crude oil futures pricing does not fully reflect the challenges of the situation in the Middle East and the risk of a shortage of refined oil products. The situation in the Middle East has become a booster for many risk narratives overseas, and will gradually exacerbate overseas monetary policy dilemmas and debt dilemmas. It is expected that the above key signals will still need to be reversed.