Zhongtai Securities: The decline in sales of housing enterprises narrowed marginally and the implementation of the existing housing sales system
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that the sales side of the real estate industry continued to bottom out in January-August 2026. Sales rebounded month-on-month in August, and the year-on-year decline narrowed markedly. Overall, demand-side optimization on the policy side was combined with system focus. The existing housing sales system was officially implemented, and the switching between old and new models in the industry accelerated. It is expected that as the effects of the policy gradually become apparent, marginal improvements on the sales side will continue, industry clean-up and pattern reshaping will advance further, and the fundamentals of the industry are expected to gradually be repaired. The bank continues to be optimistic about the medium- to long-term allocation of the real estate sector. It is recommended to focus on housing enterprises with a layout of Tier 1 and 2 cities, stable fundamentals, and a high margin of safety.
The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:
Incidents
PrySmart released the top 100 sales rankings of real estate companies in August 2026. The monthly full-caliber sales volume of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 6.2% year-on-year. China Resources Land ranked first in the industry in monthly sales, achieving sales of 18.5 billion yuan. Zhonghai Real Estate and China Merchants Shekou ranked second and third, achieving monthly sales of 16 billion yuan and 15.7 billion yuan respectively.
Industry: The year-on-year decline in sales narrowed, and the transition between old and new models accelerated
In August, the top 100 housing enterprises achieved a total monthly sales amount of 206.5 billion yuan, -6.2% year-on-month, and +5.2% month-on-month. The month-on-month decline in sales narrowed by 7.1 pcts, and changed from decline to increase month-on-month. In August, real estate policies were introduced intensively. Beijing and Shanghai successively optimized housing purchase policies, the State Council revised the “Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Funds”, and at the end of the month, various ministries and commissions jointly issued commercial housing sales system reform documents to promote the transformation of commercial housing sales to existing housing sales. As the old and new models switch, short-term housing enterprises are under pressure to adjust, the capital return cycle is lengthening, and they are becoming more cautious in acquiring land. Taken together, the current real estate market is still at the bottom of the building stage. Weak repairs on the sales side are intertwined with deep changes on the policy side, and the industry is speeding up the reshaping of the pattern as it clears up.
Real estate enterprises: leading housing enterprises have steady sales and differentiated echelon performance
The number of housing enterprises with monthly sales exceeding 10 billion dollars in August was 4, the same as the same period last year. China Resources Land achieved full-caliber sales of 18.5 billion yuan in a single month, while Zhonghai Real Estate and China Merchants Shekou achieved monthly sales of 16 billion yuan and 15.7 billion yuan respectively, ranking in the top three in the industry. Judging from the sales growth rate, the performance of the TOP31-100 real estate companies ranked in August was superior to the rest of the echelons. TOP1-5 and TOP6-15 showed a downward trend; among the TOP30 real estate companies, there were 13 housing enterprises that were growing in sales volume. Among them, China Travel Investment and China Construction Dongfu grew by 441.9% and 175.6%, respectively.
Risk warning: Sales fall short of expectations, real estate policy relaxation falls short of expectations, and there is a risk that public data used in research reports may lag behind or not be updated in a timely manner.