US debt intervention sparks resonance: Bitcoin decoupled from US stocks, digital gold narratives have come to fruition

According to Woofun AI, the linkage between Bitcoin and gold reached a historical peak due to macroeconomic policy intervention. Bitwise analysis believes that this phenomenon provides solid empirical support for Bitcoin's narrative as digital gold, indicating that its asset properties are undergoing a fundamental shift.

For a long time, the debate about whether Bitcoin has digital gold metallicity has never stopped. Proponents emphasized its scarcity and decentralized holding characteristics, while opponents pointed out that its price fluctuates drastically, there have been many deep retracements of 50% to 80% in history, and its acceptance as a preservative asset is far less than that of gold, which has a history of thousands of years.

However, market evolution since 2020 has gradually resolved this divide, and in particular, against the backdrop of recent heightened macro risks, Bitcoin's hedging value has begun to show. In August, US 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields rose, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intervened in the market and stabilized the situation by increasing long-term bond purchases. This move sent a strong signal of entering a new era of financial restraint and yield curve control. At this macro turning point, Bitcoin welcomed its strongest weekly gain since March 2024, with an increase of 22.4%.

It is worth noting that this round of the market did not occur in isolation, but was highly synchronized with the trend of gold. Gold rose by about 5% in a single week, while the US stock market declined. This differentiation indicates that Bitcoin is breaking away from the path of traditional risky assets and instead resonates with hard assets.

Dig deeper into the details of the data, and the conclusions are more persuasive. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the three-month rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to a peak of nearly six years. The last time it appeared at this level dates back to when multiple rounds of global fiscal and monetary easing policies were implemented during the 2020 pandemic. According to Bitwise Asset Management statistics based on Bloomberg terminals (range: 2015‑04‑13 to 2026‑08‑31, gold uses spot prices), the two stages of large-scale government intervention in the macro market in history correspond to the two periods when the correlation between Bitcoin and gold peaked.

Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks fell back to a one-year low. In particular, its 90-day rolling correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index declined significantly, meaning that the argument that “Bitcoin is just a leveraged technology growth stock” is no longer valid.

Furthermore, Bitcoin showed a significant negative correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY). The statistical range was also from 2015-04‑13 to 2026‑08‑31. The benchmark used the US Dollar Index (DXY) DXY. The data shows that when the dollar is under pressure weakens, Bitcoin often ushered in favorable markets, further confirming its role as a hedging tool for currency depreciation.

Although the performance of Bitcoin and gold converged during periods of macroeconomic tension, there is still an essential difference between the two: gold is a mature value-preserving asset, while Bitcoin was born less than 20 years ago. It is an innovative category, and trends will still diverge in markets that are not dominated by macro risk.

However, in the face of the risk of currency depreciation, the trade-off line between investors is blurring, and Bitcoin is beginning to appear as an elastic amplified version of gold. The gold market is about 30 trillion US dollars, and the holders are mainly central banks, sovereign institutions, and large asset allocators. This pool of funds far exceeds the trend that dominated pricing in the early stages of Bitcoin's development.

If Bitcoin officially enters the protected asset circuit, its valuation logic will target this huge market benchmark. Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has been priced using risk asset logic; if the current strong related trend continues, its value narrative may be completely rewritten in the next 15 years, and investors will simultaneously allocate the two types of assets to jointly hedge risks.