BTC ignored the sharp rise in Japanese bonds, and the September central bank meeting became a key variable

According to Woofun AI, BTC showed an independent market amidst macro headwinds, and its price performance deviated significantly from the sharp rise in Japanese treasury yields. Previously, the arbitrage trading model, which relied on cheap yen credit, was the core driving force of the market and triggered a price drop at the end of 2025, but this BTC rebound shows that the collapse of arbitrage trading alone is not enough to curb the growth momentum of cryptocurrencies.

Drastic changes in macro data make up the complex background of the current market. As of August 2026, BTC attempted to hold the critical barrier of $77,000 without being substantially impacted by rising Japanese yields. Over the past three months, the yield on Japanese treasury bonds has continued to rise without pause. Unlike in the past, the interest rate increase process was more orderly this time, providing a buffer for capital adjustments, and the Bank of Japan's predictable rate hike path avoided drastic liquidation in the short term. Specifically, two-year bond yields have risen to 1.86%, the highest level in a decade, a trend that began in 2024 and gradually penetrated the crypto market. More notably, the yield on 10-year bonds surpassed 3%, the first time since 1996, directly challenging the market's traditional perception of easy liquidity.

Meanwhile, the 30-year yield increased to 4.17%, ending a decade-long period of stagnation. In terms of exchange rates, the yen continued to weaken, and the trading price was around 159 yen to 1 US dollar. Despite signs of intervention in the market to support the exchange rate, expectations for further weakening remain strong.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that although rising bond yields and a weaker yen are generally viewed as negative signals for global markets, they have not become core variables affecting BTC and cryptocurrency transactions in the short term.

There is a clear disconnect between market performance and sentiment indicators. Over the past two months, BTC has seen a significant rebound despite the continued rise in Japanese bond yields. The BTC price increased by more than 22% during August, yet Santiment's data revealed a key contradiction: the price increase was not accompanied by a substantial improvement in market sentiment.

This divergence suggests that the current rise is more a technical fix than a continuation of the fundamentals-driven bull market. The correlation between BTC and Japanese bond yields is weakening, and while BTC may still respond to rising yields when traders need to close positions quickly, this correlation is only temporary. BTC has maintained its bullish character even in the context of the Bank of Japan's shift to a hawkish stance.

However, the value storage narrative is facing serious challenges, and BTC's profitability is difficult to compete with rising bond yields, causing its risk profile to be highlighted once again. Although traders showed greed and increased risk taking, and held long positions, the deterioration in liquidity conditions remained a major negative factor over a longer period of time.

The key variables for future trends focus on upcoming policy meetings. The Bank of Japan meeting on September 17-18 will be the next potential trigger. Statements about the yen's intervention during the meeting and further yield changes could reactivate the impact of macro factors on BTC. Despite strong bullish sentiment in the current market, the long-term shadow of tight liquidity has not dissipated. BTC remains highly risky and is extremely vulnerable to market panic and liquidation events. For short-term holders, the risk of a collapse of the value store narrative is accumulating. Once macroeconomic policy trends change abruptly, vulnerable long positions may face sharp fluctuations.