Debon Securities: AI PCBs drive global demand for PCB equipment, domestic equipment manufacturers accelerate the trend of domestic substitution

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Debon Securities released a research report saying that demand for AI PCBs has exploded, and technology iterations are driving equipment inflation. The bank estimates that demand for AIPCB equipment will be 158, 295, and 67 billion yuan respectively in 25-27, and that AI PCBs will drive the year-on-year growth rates of global PCB equipment demand of 30% and 64% in 26 and 27, respectively. Furthermore, it is expected that without expanding production, the current production capacity of the equipment industry may not be enough to support equipment demand in 2027, and there is a sharp upward trend in volume and price in the equipment sector. Domestic equipment manufacturers are accelerating the trend of domestic substitution.

The main views of Debon Securities are as follows:

Demand for AI PCBs explodes, and technology iterations drive equipment inflation

Rapid iteration of AI servers, switches, optical modules, etc. promotes the evolution of AI PCBs to high multi-layer and high level HDI. Compared with traditional servers, the AIPCB layer number, area, hole density, line accuracy and reliability requirements have increased significantly. The value of stand-alone PCBs has increased exponentially, driving structural upgrading of the industry, and the upgrading of the AIPCB product structure has driven overall inflation in the equipment industry.

AI PCB manufacturers have greatly expanded production, which is expected to drive the growth rate of PCB equipment by more than 30% in 26-27

According to the bank's incomplete statistics, the world's mainstream PCB board manufacturers have invested 101.2 billion yuan in production expansion plans since 2026. The focus of the expansion is on AI supporting high-end production capacity of high-layer, high-grade HDI. The bank estimates that demand for AIPCB equipment will be 158, 295, and 67 billion yuan respectively in 25-27, and that AI PCBs will drive the year-on-year growth rates of global PCB equipment demand of 30% and 64% in 26 and 27, respectively.

Existing equipment production capacity may not be enough to support the rapid growth in industry demand in 2027, and core PCB equipment is expected to usher in a “sharp rise in volume and price”

High multi-layer boards and HDI requirements for hole processing, interlayer interconnection, and fine wiring have increased markedly. The bank believes that drilling (estimated to account for 35% of value), electroplating (estimated to account for 20%), exposure (estimated to account for 15%), and inspection (estimated to account for 10%) as core equipment, the benefits are outstanding. The bank estimates that the demand for drilling, electroplating, exposure, and testing equipment in 2027 is about 33.8 billion, 19.3 billion, 14.5 billion, and 9.6 billion, respectively. The bank expects that without expanding production, the current production capacity of the equipment industry may not be enough to support equipment demand in 2027, and there is a sharp rise in volume and price in the equipment sector.

Overseas equipment manufacturers are limited in production capacity, and domestic equipment manufacturers are accelerating the trend of domestic substitution

In the face of AI PCB opportunities, overseas equipment manufacturers have limited production capacity and are less willing to expand production. Domestic equipment manufacturers have developed strong competitiveness in core equipment fields such as drilling (mechanical drilling and ultra-fast laser drilling), electroplating (horizontal transfer hole filling), exposure, and inspection, etc., and are expanding production rapidly. They are expected to fully benefit from this wave of AIPCB production expansion and seize the domestic replacement window.

Investment suggestions: The recommended industrial chain targets include Dazu CNC, Chipboard Microelectronics, Dongwei Technology, Asia Network Technology, UFU Technology, and Sanfu Xinke.

Risk warning: Global cloud vendor AI capital expenditure falls short of expectations, PCB vendor production expansion and equipment order fulfillment risk falling short of expectations, and changes in technology routes and industry competition exacerbate risks.