Earnings Update: Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (VIE:MMK) Just Reported Its Interim Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (VIE:MMK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.9% to €78.50 in the week after its latest interim results. Mayr-Melnhof Karton reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of €922m and statutory earnings per share of €3.86, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Mayr-Melnhof Karton's three analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be €3.71b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Mayr-Melnhof Karton forecast to report a statutory profit of €4.80 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €3.84b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.78 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.
View our latest analysis for Mayr-Melnhof Karton
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €94.00 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Mayr-Melnhof Karton analyst has a price target of €96.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €90.50. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Mayr-Melnhof Karton is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Mayr-Melnhof Karton's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 3.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Mayr-Melnhof Karton is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Mayr-Melnhof Karton. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Mayr-Melnhof Karton analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Mayr-Melnhof Karton .
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