Monex Group (TSE:8698) Earnings Lift Puts Valuation Back In Focus

Monex Group first quarter earnings draw investor attention

Monex Group (TSE:8698) has come into focus after reporting first quarter results to June 30, 2026, with revenue of ¥21,776 million and net income of ¥1,922 million, both higher than a year earlier.

See our latest analysis for Monex Group.

The latest earnings release appears to have acted as a short term catalyst, with a 1 day share price return of 4.53% and a 7 day share price return of 2.88%, partly offsetting a 30 day share price return that is down 5.55%. Even with the share price slightly lower year to date, the 3 year total shareholder return of 53.92% and 5 year total shareholder return of 47.01% indicate that long term investors in Monex Group have still seen meaningful gains.

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Recent gains after Monex Group's latest quarter have partly offset weaker year to date returns. Do those numbers and the current share price still leave enough upside potential to justify the risks for new buyers?

Price-to-earnings of 16.4x for Monex Group: Is it justified?

On a P/E of 16.4x at a last close of ¥715, Monex Group screens as more expensive than both its peer group and the broader JP Capital Markets industry.

The P/E ratio compares the current share price with earnings per share and is a common way investors gauge how much they are paying for each unit of profit. For a financial and market infrastructure stock like Monex Group, this often reflects how the market views the quality and durability of its earnings, as well as expectations for future profit growth.

Here, the company is described as expensive versus the estimated fair P/E of 13.3x, which implies the current market price builds in a stronger earnings profile than that fair level suggests. At the same time, the stock is also described as expensive against the JP Capital Markets industry average of 11.8x and the peer average of 13x, which points to a premium that could narrow if sentiment or earnings expectations shift toward those benchmark levels.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Monex Group

Result: Price-to-earnings of 16.4x (OVERVALUED)

However, investors also need to weigh risks such as annual revenue growth that declined 2.8% and the stock’s 1 year total return, which is down 4.38%.

Find out about the key risks to this Monex Group narrative.

Another view on Monex Group's valuation

The P/E view suggests Monex Group is expensive, and the SWS DCF model points even further in that direction. At a share price of ¥715, the stock is described as trading well above an estimated future cash flow value of ¥183.02. That gap raises a clear question for investors: Which signal should carry more weight?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Monex Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 26 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Unsure whether Monex Group's mixed signals point to opportunity or excess optimism? Act while the information is fresh and weigh both sides using the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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