Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
U.S. stock futures are posting modest gains early Thursday as investors evaluate an intensifying U.S. economic offensive against Iran alongside incoming corporate earnings and a recent Treasury buyback announcement.
The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning heavily bullish for the Aug. 20 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 20?” contract currently reflects a 66% chance of a higher open.
Why That Number Matters
Traders are balancing a busy earnings calendar and macro data against a highly volatile geopolitical backdrop:
- Higher Index Futures: Equity futures are pointing to a positive open. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.16%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.42%. Dow Jones futures also ticked up 0.06%, while Russell 2000 futures rose 0.24%.
- Geopolitics & Energy: President Donald Trump announced the “most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country,” dubbed “Operation Economic Fury,” designed to isolate Iran. Trump warned of “tremendous” consequences for any nation providing a financial lifeline to Tehran, declaring it an “economic D-Day.” Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly weighing strikes on U.S. military targets in Europe. Amid these escalating tensions, Brent crude futures traded slightly higher at $91.79 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ticked up to $84.45 a barrel.
- Earnings & Eco Data: Thursday’s earnings docket features major reports from Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ:WMT), Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:BABA), Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE), NetEase Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES), and Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST). On the economic front, investors are awaiting August’s Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey and weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by July’s leading indicators data at 10:00 a.m. ET.
The Bull Case and Market Outlook
A recent selloff in the Treasury market has raised some alarms, but according to Lawrence Gillum, Chief Fixed Income Strategist for LPL Financial, it is a normalization, not a crisis. The backup in long-end yields—with the 30-year bond recently eclipsing 5.30% and the 10-year yield hitting its highest levels since 2023—is driven by heavy fiscal supply, AI-related corporate issuance, and residual energy-price inflation risk.
Gillum noted that the market is finally pricing in a term premium again after years of suppression. He added that rate volatility remains subdued and recent Treasury auctions have seen decent demand without signs of real buyer fatigue. Furthermore, Wednesday’s Treasury buyback announcement is viewed more as strategic signaling than an actual fix, underscoring that the Treasury Department is paying attention and will do whatever it can to keep yields from rising too high too quickly.
How the Previous Bet Played Out
The Aug. 19 Polymarket contract resolved “Up.” The contract recorded $109,805 in total trading volume.
On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed mixed. The SPY was up 0.21% to $769.06, while the QQQ declined by 0.20% to $716.08. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), also ended 0.26% higher at $534.27 on Wednesday.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock