Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Gold is soaring! Strategic allocation requirements support the upward trend in gold prices, and the sector ushered in an allocation window (with concept stocks)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on Wednesday local time, the US Treasury Department announced that it will significantly expand the scale of government debt repurchases. Driven by this news, US bond yields fell sharply, US stocks temporarily stopped the “triple decline” trend, and metal sectors such as gold and silver collectively surged. At the same time, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded 40 trillion US dollars. Geographic risks boosted, investor demand rebounded, and central banks increased their gold holdings, providing support for the further rise in gold prices.

The US Treasury Department announced plans to at least double the scale of liquidity support repurchase operations for long-term nominal coupon treasury bonds, from a maximum of 2 billion US dollars per operation to at least 4 billion US dollars. This adjustment covers the 10 to 20 year term and 20 to 30 year treasury bonds. It will take effect on September 9, 2026 and continue until November 4, 2026.

The US Treasury Department said in a statement: “This increase in the scale of repurchase operations reflects the Treasury's desire to provide greater liquidity support in the field of long-term nominal treasury bonds. Market participants continue to show strong willingness to participate, as evidenced by the large number of high-quality offers that the Ministry of Finance often receives in long-term treasury bond repurchase operations.”

As soon as the news came out, US bond yields fell sharply; US 10-year Treasury yields fell nearly 7 basis points to 4.641%; US 30-year Treasury yields dived nearly 10 basis points to 5.189%.

Risk aversion and investment demand are driving investors to move to sectors such as metals. Due to its low correlation with traditional risk assets such as stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, gold often plays a role in hedging portfolio risk and stabilizing risk-adjusted returns at times when the market experiences significant fluctuations.

At the end of the New York session on Wednesday (August 19), spot gold surged 4.3% to 4523.08 US dollars/ounce. COMEX gold futures rose 3.62% to $4580.70 per ounce. Silver goods surged 5.8% to $67.008 per ounce. COMEX silver futures rose 4.83% to $67.13/oz.

At the same time, America's ever-expanding government debt is also increasing market concerns. According to data released by the US Treasury Department on August 19, the total US federal government debt has exceeded 40 trillion US dollars.

Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peter Peterson Foundation, issued a statement on the 19th saying that in less than ten years, the US federal government debt has doubled, and the more debt Americans bear, the more interest costs. At the same time, debt has damaged economic growth, slowed wage growth, and the cost of living continues to rise. As American society ages and health care costs continue to expand, debt growth is expected to accelerate. Without budget reforms, the US federal government debt will reach 50 trillion US dollars in just 6 years.

According to historical data, the balance of US outstanding federal government debt previously surpassed 30 trillion US dollars in January 2022. The US Congressional Budget Office predicted in May 2023 that the $40 trillion mark would not be reached until the 2028 fiscal year, but the reality was much earlier than expected.

The sharp rise in US debt has begun to cause central banks around the world to diversify their reserve assets and gradually become important buyers in the gold market. The central bank's act of continuing to increase the allocation of gold may help provide long-term support for gold prices, stabilize the long-term price center, and highlight the long-term strategic allocation value of gold.

In 2025, the global central bank's net purchase of 848 tons was above its 10-year average of 681 tons for five consecutive years. According to the 2026 “Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey” release, 89% of central banks believe that the gold reserves of global central banks will increase in the next 12 months. Meanwhile, the share of central banks that think their own gold reserves will also increase in the next 12 months reached a record 45%.

The Citigroup Commodity Team is optimistic about the gold price outlook and predicts that the gold price will reach 5,000 US dollars per ounce in the next 6 to 12 months. The average gold price forecast is 4,530 US dollars in 2026 and 4,850 US dollars in 2027. The bank estimates that every 10% change in the price of gold will affect profits of about 16% in 2026 and 2027.

CITIC Futures believes that short-term gold prices may remain volatile, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting express the policy path, and whether the rise in long-term yields is dominated by actual interest rates, term premiums, or fiscal concerns. If expectations of the US dollar and interest rate hikes continue to cool down, the sell-off of long-term bonds will suppress gold or be relatively limited; if energy prices rise again strengthen inflation and interest rate hike transactions, gold price fluctuations may further increase.

Related concept stocks

China Gold International (02099): China Gold International announced its 2026 interim results, with sales revenue of about US$914 million, an increase of 57.52% over the previous year. Mine operating profit was about US$620 million, up 123.83% year on year; profit attributable to company owners was about US$507 million, up 153.31% year on year; profit per share was 127.99 US cents. Total gold production decreased by 18% to 72,300 ounces from 88,200 ounces in the same period in 2025. Total copper production was 78.6 million pounds (about 35,671 tons), a slight increase from 77 million pounds (about 34,924 tons) in the same period in 2025.

Chifeng Gold (06693): The company expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half year of 2026 of about RMB 1.7 billion to RMB 1.78 billion. Compared with RMB 1,107 billion in the same period last year, it will increase RMB 593 million to RMB 673 million, an increase of about 54% to 61% over the previous year;

Zijin Mining (02899): The company expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half year of 2026 of about 39.1 billion yuan. Compared with 23.3 billion yuan in the same period last year, an increase of about 15.8 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of about 68%.