Triggered by 8 capitulation indicators, is the end of the BTC bear market or the last fall?

According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin price has been fluctuating around the $60,000 mark for a long time since June of this year, and market sentiment is undergoing a subtle shift. According to the Bitget market, the latest BTC price was 64,333 US dollars, up 0.42% in 24 hours. According to CoinMarketCap data, the Panic and Greed Index rebounded to 41, returning to the neutral range. The total number of outstanding contracts closed across the network in the past 24 hours reached US$203 million, of which more than US$106 million were liquidated.

This series of data shows that the market is absorbing fluctuations, and institutional opinions are clearly divided around the bottom range and future market trends.

The VanEck research team pointed out that the adjusted market, which has continued for nearly 11 months, may be nearing its end, and the market may enter a new stage of accumulation. Digital Asset Research Director Matthew Sigel and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush discovered through the “Bitcoin Market Surrender Check” model that 8 of the current 12 indicators have triggered extremely pessimistic signals, and all 12 indicators have entered the panic sell-off zone in the past 3 months. Researchers believe this marks the near completion of the price “capitulation” phase.

Meanwhile, signs of capital inflows improved, and the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of nearly $300 million on Monday, the highest in a single day since May 5. Looking at the historical cycle, the three-round bear market continued for an average of about 12.7 months from the top to the biggest decline in the past. The current round of adjustments has already entered its 11th month, and the market may have bottomed out between September and November.

However, VanEck warned that when 8 to 12 indicators show extreme signals at the same time, Bitcoin's average earnings for the next 90 and 180 days will fall below the long-term benchmark. This low is expected to be more moderate than previous rounds, thanks to the development of spot ETFs, institutional investor participation, and the absence of chain shocks similar to the collapse of FTX, Celsius, and TerraLUNA.

In terms of on-chain data, glassnode indicates that the market is in a state of high contraction, and sellers' selling pressure has weakened, but buyers have not clearly entered the market. BTC mainly fluctuated between $63,000 and $68,700, and trading activity fell to its lowest level since 2019.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the “seller exhaustion index” fell to its lowest level since 2013 on the 30th, but no historic bottoming signs have been confirmed. If BTC falls below $58,500, the next support level may drop to $52,800. In an interview with Bloomberg, BitWise's chief investment officer Matt Hougan pointed out that it is an important “bottoming sign” that the market is no longer responding to bearish positions. Whether Michael Saylor sold Bitcoin or the probability of passing the CLARITY Act dropped drastically, BTC did not decline significantly or bucked the trend.

Hougan expects the crypto market to experience a stronger market at the end of the year. The next batch of buyers will come from large wealth management platforms. This bull market will be slower, less volatile, and more institutionalized. BIT tweeted that historically, Bitcoin was about 40% below the long-term market average during the bear market. If the pattern is repeated, the price may drop to about 45,500 US dollars. However, this is not a benchmark scenario. BIT is relatively optimistic about the future market, believing that the current potential downside risk is about 20%, corresponding to about 60% potential upward space, and the risk-to-benefit ratio is becoming more and more attractive.

According to Bitfinex analysis, Bitcoin is already in the middle to late stage bear market characteristics. The price tag is between $52,699 for long-term holders (bear market floor, long-term holders still profit) and short-term holders achieve a price of $67,176 (all recent buyers lost money). BTC achieved a median price of around $63,200 and continued to provide support over the past two weeks. A fall below this position could retest $57,803. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an article entitled “Yen-quake” saying that the yen is currently the most undervalued and must appreciate under pressure from the US and China and domestic politics in Japan.

He analyzed the three paths and believes that the most likely solution preferred by the US Treasury and the Japanese political community is: Japan's Ministry of Finance mortgages its US bonds to the Federal Reserve in exchange for dollars through the Federal Reserve's FIMA repurchase tool, then sells dollars to buy yen in the foreign exchange market, and flows back yen funds to Japanese treasury bonds and the stock market. This move will expand the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, boost the liquidity of the US dollar, promote the appreciation of the yen, and ease yen arbitrage transactions in an orderly manner. Historically, the expansion of the Federal Reserve's table is highly correlated with the rise of Bitcoin. It is expected that once this operation progresses, it will bring significant liquidity benefits to the Bitcoin and crypto markets.

Trader Killa wrote that Bitcoin is now back above the Mayer multiple level of 0.8, and the price previously fell below this position. He pointed out that BTC also briefly fell below this level in 2022 and then recovered again. Killa emphasized that the real confirmation signal for 2022 comes from Bitcoin's return to the 200-day moving average, after which the bull market began. Currently, BTC's 200-day moving average is around $69,500. He believes that next we only need to wait for Bitcoin to break through again and stabilize at the 200-day moving average; once this move is completed, the market can be seen as officially turning into a bull market.