UBS: Intel (INTC.US) has secured $20 billion financing, and the “Hanging Sword” has been lifted

The Zhitong Finance App learned that UBS (UBS) released a report on Wednesday saying that the $20 billion financing plan announced by Intel (INTC.US) this week is likely to have eliminated the long-term uncertainty surrounding its stock price.

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri (Timothy Arcuri) pointed out in a report to customers that in conjunction with the advance payments and financial commitments attached to multiple foundry agreements to be finalized by Intel — Google is believed to have reached cooperation on EMIB-T technology, and Apple is involved in M-series chips, in addition to AMD, SpaceX, and potential other customers — this round of financing is sufficient to support subsequent construction investment in its foundry business. “Overall, we see this financing as a strong endorsement of Intel's confidence in its foundry roadmap,” Acuri concluded.

Acuri maintained a “neutral” rating on Intel stock, but lowered its target price from $121 to $112 after the funding news was announced.

Notably, the Trump administration did not participate in this round of financing, although Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick (Howard Lutnick) has allegedly expressed unofficial support to Intel CEO Lip Bu-Tan (Lip Bu-Tan). Prior to this funding, the US federal government held approximately 9.9% of Intel's shares.

Acuri further deconstructed Intel's capital expenditure path. He believes that Intel's capital expenditure in the 2026 fiscal year will reach about 20 billion US dollars, and may rise significantly to about 28 billion to 30 billion US dollars in the 2027 fiscal year. By the 2028 and 2029 calendar years, this figure may approach 40 billion US dollars.

In terms of cash flow, Acuri added that Intel's statement on achieving positive free cash flow in the 2027 calendar year is quite vague. The UBS model shows that there was still about 1 billion US dollars in cash consumption in that year; cash consumption is expected to expand to about 4 billion US dollars in 2028, and positive free cash flow is not expected to be recorded until 2029, and gradually improved thereafter.

Finally, Acuri emphasized that he has long been optimistic about Intel's progress in process indicators and yield curves in the 14A process (unlike 18A, this node is essentially a reduction in the process node), and believes that this node has a wider process window and should be more attractive to external customers.