Nissan Motor (TSE:7201) Returns To Profit, But Is The Recovery Already Priced In?
Nissan Motor (TSE:7201) is back in focus after reporting a return to net profit in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and reaffirming its full year earnings guidance while trimming sales volume expectations.
See our latest analysis for Nissan Motor.
The reaffirmed full year profit guidance appears to have steadied sentiment, with a 9.76% 1 month share price return partly offsetting the year to date share price decline of 13.22%. However, the 5 year total shareholder return is down 41.20%, suggesting longer term momentum has been weak.
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Bulls point to Nissan Motor's return to profit and reaffirmed earnings guidance. Bears focus on the cut to sales volumes and weak longer term returns. Which side does the current valuation support next?
Most Popular Nissan Motor Narrative: 14.2% Undervalued
The most followed narrative values Nissan Motor at ¥397.29 per share compared with a last close of ¥340.80. That gap reflects a view that the current share price does not fully reflect the company’s projected recovery.
The ongoing global shift towards electric vehicles, strongly supported by government incentives, emissions regulations, and bans on internal combustion engines in key markets, positions Nissan to benefit from its accelerated EV product launches, including the new LEAF, Micra EV, and next-gen models. This is expected to drive potential topline revenue growth as these new offerings gain market share, especially in the U.S., Europe, and Japan.
Want to see what sits under that EV push and margin rebuild story. The narrative leans on modest revenue growth, a swing back to profit, and a re rated earnings multiple. The mix of volume, pricing, and cost cuts is where the fair value case really lives.
Result: Fair Value of ¥397.29 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the Nissan Motor story still carries clear risks, including ongoing losses and negative free cash flow, as well as intense China competition that could keep pressure on volumes and pricing.
Find out about the key risks to this Nissan Motor narrative.
Next Steps
With sentiment clearly split on Nissan Motor, this is a good time to move fast and weigh the upside against the risks using the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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