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    TotalEnergies (ENXTPA:TTE) Could Be 16% Undervalued As Cronos Gas Project Advances

    Simply Wall St·08/05/2026 21:40:44
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    TotalEnergies (ENXTPA:TTE) has returned to focus after it and partner Eni approved the Cronos gas field development in Cyprus, a new offshore LNG project that will supply Egyptian liquefaction facilities and European exports.

    See our latest analysis for TotalEnergies.

    At a latest share price of €73.80, TotalEnergies has pulled back slightly in the past week, with a 7 day share price return of a 2.68% decline, after a strong 30 day share price return of 9.90% and a year to date share price return of 31.55%. Over a longer horizon, the 1 year total shareholder return of 48.47% and 5 year total shareholder return of 158.34% show that investors who stayed invested through earlier cycles have seen a markedly different outcome from those focused only on short term share price swings.

    If Cronos and the recent renewables deals have you thinking about where else energy and infrastructure themes might lead, it is worth scanning the wider power grid opportunity set through the 36 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

    After that strong run and the latest pullback, TotalEnergies still trades at a discount to both analyst targets and an intrinsic value estimate. Is the market rightly cautious about its mix of legacy hydrocarbons and new energy projects?

    Most Popular Narrative: 16.4% Undervalued

    The most followed narrative on TotalEnergies pins fair value at €88.29 per share against the latest close of €73.80, which implies a sizeable valuation gap built on a detailed energy transition thesis.

    TotalEnergies, unlike its competitors, has adopted an "asset-heavy" integrated model aiming to own assets at every stage of the value chain. Compared to the more "asset-light" trading-focused models of competitors like Shell (SHEL), this structure can be seen as a risk factor in terms of capital intensity. However, current market dynamics prove that this intensity actually functions as a "strategic resilience shield."

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see how that resilience idea translates into numbers? The narrative leans heavily on cash flow strength, disciplined capital costs and a specific discount rate to bridge oil, LNG and power earnings into that higher fair value.

    Result: Fair Value of €88.29 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, there are still clear risks for TotalEnergies, including faster climate policy that affects gas assets and weaker refinery margins that reduce cash flows and valuation assumptions.

    Find out about the key risks to this TotalEnergies narrative.

    Next Steps

    With both risks and rewards in play for TotalEnergies, sentiment is clearly mixed. Move quickly to review the full picture across the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond TotalEnergies?

    If you want to keep building on the work you have done with TotalEnergies, do not stop here. The right mix of new ideas could be what you miss most.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.