Why SpaceX Stock Popped Before Earnings
Key Points
SpaceX releases Q2 earnings tonight.
Elon Musk issued a warning against shorting the stock ahead of earnings.
Investors are heeding the warning.
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock is scheduled to make its first earnings report as a public company after close of trading today. The news won't be released for at least another hour -- but already, SpaceX stock is soaring, up 9.6% through 3 p.m. ET.
And Elon Musk is the reason.
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Elon Musk scares the shorts off investors
As StreetInsider.com reports today, Musk appeared to warn investors against shorting SpaceX stock ahead of earnings. Commenting on what's been described as "massive" short interest -- as much as 95% of "available to borrow" shares and 34% of the float -- Musk took to X today to issue the following ominous observation:
I try to warn them, but they just double down ... 🤷♂️
-- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 4, 2026
Was it a joke? Was it a threat? Or was it simply some friendly advice?
Whatever the CEO's intent, investors seem to be thinking that a few minutes before earnings come out might not be the safest time to be short SpaceX stock, lest the news turn out to be "good" and spark a short squeeze. They're closing out short positions and driving SpaceX's stock price higher in the process... which just happens to be exactly how most short squeezes start!
What does Wall Street think SpaceX will say?
Whatever SpaceX reports this evening will be judged against Wall Street analyst guidance for what they think it will report: $0.29 per share in (presumably non-GAAP) earnings, and $6.8 billion in quarterly revenue.
Can SpaceX beat these numbers? Elon Musk seems to think it will, and who knows better than the CEO? Even a beat, however, won't save SpaceX stock if guidance isn't similarly great.
Tune in tonight to see how it all plays out.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.