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    Saipem (BIT:SPM) Could Be 28% Undervalued As Mixed Earnings Test Its Rally

    Simply Wall St·08/04/2026 17:38:43
    語音播報

    Saipem (BIT:SPM) reported second quarter 2026 results with sales of €3,817 million and net income of €18 million, as well as first half sales of €7,345 million and net income of €96 million.

    See our latest analysis for Saipem.

    The latest earnings news for Saipem comes against a backdrop of mixed price momentum, with the share price return up 71.72% year to date and the 1 year total shareholder return at 99.45%, while the 5 year total shareholder return is slightly down 5.92%.

    If Saipem's recent move has you thinking about where else the market is finding growth, this is a good time to scan 36 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

    Saipem has surged on the back of mixed earnings and now trades below the average analyst target and significantly under some fair value estimates. Is the recent rally already generous, or does the discount still look real?

    Most Popular Narrative: 28.4% Undervalued

    Saipem last closed at €4.29, while the most followed narrative anchors on a fair value near €5.99. That gap is built on specific growth and margin assumptions that go well beyond the latest quarter.

    The accelerating demand for energy infrastructure upgrades worldwide, from aging offshore fields to long-distance gas pipelines and renewable mega-projects, coupled with Saipem's technical capabilities and capital-light bidding for €53 billion in new tenders, is presented as setting the stage for a multi-year uplift in both order intake and structurally higher EBITDA margins.

    Read the complete narrative.

    The core of this Saipem narrative is straightforward. Top line assumptions, paired with firmer margins and a reset earnings multiple, are doing the heavy lifting. Want to see how revenue growth, profitability and valuation are described as working together to reach that fair value, and where the most optimistic earnings path in the narrative really comes from.

    Result: Fair Value of €5.99 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, Saipem still faces meaningful risks, including dependence on conventional oil and gas projects and ongoing execution challenges on complex, fixed price contracts.

    Find out about the key risks to this Saipem narrative.

    Another View on Saipem's Valuation

    While the narrative and DCF work suggest Saipem looks undervalued, the market is sending a different signal. The current P/E of 31.1x sits above the fair ratio of 26.1x and also above peer averages near 19x and 13.8x. That kind of premium can either shrink or be earned, so which outcome do you think is more likely?

    See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

    BIT:SPM P/E Ratio as at Aug 2026
    BIT:SPM P/E Ratio as at Aug 2026

    Next Steps

    With both risks and rewards in the Saipem story, do you want to rely on others or weigh the trade off yourself? Start with the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Saipem?

    If you are serious about building a stronger portfolio, do not stop your research with Saipem. Use this moment to line up your next potential opportunities.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.