Guohai Securities: Core component suppliers are expected to benefit from increased penetration rate of AIDC liquid cooling

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that the demand trend for AI-driven data center liquid cooling is gradually becoming clear, and core component manufacturers have entered a performance release cycle. According to the bank's estimates, the global data center liquid cooling core components market will reach 61.1 billion US dollars in 2030, and the CAGR will be 33% from 2026 to 2030. The industry is expected to be in a high boom range for a long time. The bank maintains a “recommended” rating for the special equipment industry.

Guohai Securities's main views are as follows:

Driving factors: Increased computing power, increased driving energy consumption+increased PUE requirements, increased TCO cost advantage, increased penetration rate of AIDC liquid cooling

1) Increased AI computing power has led to an increase in chip and server power consumption. The AI model is shifting from training-oriented acceleration to inference, and the task density of intelligent devices continues to rise, driving the TDP of a single chip from 700W of the H100 to 2300W of Rubin. The power density of a single cabinet breaks through the limit of air-cooled cooling and cooling, and liquid cooling may be upgraded from an “optional configuration” to a “required solution”. 2) Increased requirements for large data centers at home and abroad for PUE. China requires that the PUE of new large-scale data centers be reduced to less than 1.3, and German legislation requires that the PUE of existing data centers be reduced to less than 1.3 after July 2030, stipulating that the PUE of newly built data centers should be less than 1.2 in July 2026, making it easier for liquid cooling to meet the requirements. 3) The full life cycle cost (TCO) advantage is obvious. According to IIM and KeZhi Consulting, the TCO of the liquid cooling solution is 19%-24% lower than air cooling within a 3-year cycle, and the investment cost can generally be recovered in about two years.

Technical route: Short-term cold plate is the mainstream solution, medium- to long-term cold plate submersion or coexistence

The short-term cold plate type is still mainstream, benefiting from: 1) Forced liquid cooling on the Nvidia GB200/GB300/Rubin platform, and the cold plate type is expected to be released first. 2) Existing data centers are in high demand, and the cost of cold plate transformation is low. 3) The policy PUE red line is counterproductive. The medium- to long-term cold plate type and submersion type may coexist for a long time.

Market space: Global data center liquid cooling core components market space is estimated to be USD 195/61.1 billion in 2026/2030

The core components of cold plate liquid cooling systems include cold plates, CDU, quick couplings, and manifolds. The value is mainly concentrated in cold plates and CDU; the core components of immersion liquid cooling include coolant, CDU, and liquid cooling tanks, where the value is mainly concentrated in coolant and CDU; it is expected that the new power added to the data center will increase year by year, and the liquid cooling penetration rate will increase. The bank expects the market space for liquid cooling core components to be 61.1 billion US dollars in 2030, a compound growth rate of 33%. Among them, the optical module liquid cooling market increased from 2 billion US dollars to 8 billion US dollars (CAGR 42%), and the CDU liquid cooling pump market is expected to reach 6.6 billion US dollars in 2030.

Industrial chain competition and competition: the demand side presents a super strong pattern of “NV Chain+Google Chain+Huawei Chain”, and supply-side domestic substitution accelerates breakthroughs

Nvidia dominates the global GPU market and uses a multi-level, hierarchical certification system; DIGITIMES observes that Google's TPU is expected to reach 46% of the high-end ASIC market share in 2026; according to AIX financial reports, Huawei's share of the market share of Huawei Shengteng ranks first in domestic production, building a localized ecosystem with equal emphasis on vertical integration and strategic alliances. On the supply side, the CDU market is dominated by international giants such as Verti Technology. Domestic Invec is the leading domestic manufacturer and has obtained Nvidia Tier 1 certification; in the field of liquid cooling pumps, Feilong Co., Ltd. and Dayuan Pump have accelerated their entry into the supply chain of leading customers at home and abroad, and there is plenty of room for domestic replacement.

Risk warning: risk of data center installed capacity falling short of expectations; policy risk; focus on risk of company performance falling short of expectations; risk of large fluctuations in product prices; risk of construction of additional production capacity falling short of expectations; risk of project delays, failure to implement, or failure to generate expected returns; risk of certain deviations between data statistics estimates and actual conditions