Earnings Miss: FTAI Aviation Ltd. Missed EPS By 16% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Shareholders might have noticed that FTAI Aviation Ltd. (NASDAQ:FTAI) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.6% to US$206 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting US$953m, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 16%, coming in at just US$1.13 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for FTAI Aviation from seven analysts is for revenues of US$3.73b in 2026. If met, it would imply a solid 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 42% to US$6.60. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.77b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.47 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
See our latest analysis for FTAI Aviation
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$377. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on FTAI Aviation, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$600 and the most bearish at US$290 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 44% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 41% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that FTAI Aviation is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for FTAI Aviation going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for FTAI Aviation (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.