TFI International (TSX:TFII) Stock Looks About Fair Value On Its 64% Run
After a 64.2% return over the past year, TFI International no longer looks like an obvious bargain, yet its valuation checks still do not flag it as clearly expensive either.
- Over the last 12 months, TFI International has delivered a 64.2% share price gain, which sets a high bar for any further upside to be justified by fundamentals.
- The recent improvement in profitability in truckload operations can support current expectations, while softer pricing trends in the Less Than Truckload segment may limit how much investors are willing to pay for the stock.
- Across Simply Wall St’s valuation framework, TFI International scores 4 out of 6 checks. This points to a mixed picture rather than a clear bargain or clear overvaluation, with some measures looking reasonable and others less so.
The issue now is whether TFI International’s recent share price strength already reflects this earnings progress or if there is still room for valuation support from here.
Is TFI International Fairly Priced on Earnings?
The P/E ratio is a useful way to gauge what the market is willing to pay today for each dollar of TFI International’s earnings. TFI International currently trades on about 33.1x earnings, which is higher than the Transportation industry average of roughly 14.5x and also above the peer group average of about 23.6x.
The modelled fair P/E for TFI International is 33.2x, which is very close to where the stock is trading now. That suggests the current premium to the broader industry is roughly in line with what might be expected once the company’s margins, scale and risk profile are factored in. Despite the stronger truckload results and the confidence implied by the higher dividend announced in the Q2 2026 update, the current P/E already prices TFI International broadly in line with these characteristics rather than at a clear discount.
On the P/E multiple, TFI International appears to be trading at a level that is broadly consistent with a fair valuation rather than at a clearly cheap or clearly expensive level.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
The TFI International Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?
Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where the TFI International valuation puzzle leaves off. They spell out which assumptions about TFI International's future growth, margins and earnings would need to hold for the stock to be worth materially more or materially less than today's price, using each narrative as a thesis about the business that can be tracked over time rather than a one off snapshot. These are available on Simply Wall St's Community page, where you can see how different views compare.
The TFI International community is split between a growth driven recovery story and a view that current expectations already stretch the valuation.
Bull case: 27% undervalued
"TFI's rapid shift towards a less asset-intensive, brokerage-heavy model, especially within the U.S. Truckload segment, could unlock sustained free cash flow of up to $1 billion in a more normalized environment, allowing for aggressive share buybacks and transformational M&A to drive both EPS and revenue far ahead of expectations…"
Read the full Bull Case to see why TFI International could be undervalued
Bear case: 20% overvalued
"Traditional freight models face the persistent risk of disruption from autonomous vehicles, drones, and local micro-fulfillment solutions, which may significantly reduce demand for both less-than-truckload and truckload shipments in the U.S. and Canada; this presents a structural threat to TFI's long-term revenue base as new delivery methods shrink its total addressable market…"
Read the full Bear Case to see why TFI International could be overvalued
Do you think there's more to the story for TFI International? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
The Bottom Line
TFI International now trades on a P/E that lines up closely with its modelled fair multiple, so the valuation reads as about right rather than a clear bargain or clear stretch. The mixed valuation score reinforces that this is not a straightforward value story based on current numbers alone. What matters most from here is whether TFI International can sustain margin quality, especially in truckload, without further pressure from softer pricing in less than truckload. That balance between earnings resilience and pricing power is what will decide whether today’s multiple holds, compresses, or earns more room to expand.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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