Earnings Miss: Orion Group Holdings, Inc. Missed EPS And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
There's been a major selloff in Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ORN) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 23% to US$9.78. Revenues came in at US$222m, in line with estimates, while Orion Group Holdings reported a statutory loss of US$0.10 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Orion Group Holdings' six analysts is for revenues of US$930.0m in 2026. This would reflect a reasonable 3.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 139% to US$0.21. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$939.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.33 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Orion Group Holdings
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 13% to US$15.40, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Orion Group Holdings analyst has a price target of US$16.40 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Orion Group Holdings'historical trends, as the 7.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 7.1% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 12% annually. So although Orion Group Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Orion Group Holdings' future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Orion Group Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Orion Group Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Orion Group Holdings (including 1 which is concerning) .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.