Is Southern Copper (SCCO) Expensive Following Strong Earnings And A Higher Dividend?
Southern Copper’s latest earnings and dividend move
Southern Copper (SCCO) has drawn fresh attention after reporting higher sales and net income for Q2 and the first half of 2026, alongside a Board authorized cash dividend of $1.10 per share.
See our latest analysis for Southern Copper.
Southern Copper’s share price is US$182.71 after a small pullback over the last day. The 30 day share price return of 8.24% and year to date gain of 25.16% suggest momentum has been building, with a very large 1 year total shareholder return and strong three and five year total shareholder returns reinforcing that picture.
If you are looking beyond Southern Copper and want to see what else is moving in the metals space, now could be a good time to review 8 top copper producer stocks
Southern Copper now combines very strong recent results with a higher cash dividend and a share price near all time highs. The business looks powerful. The next step is to see whether the valuation still does.
Most Popular Narrative: 9% Overvalued
Southern Copper’s last close of $182.71 sits above the most followed fair value estimate of $167.79, which is built on detailed revenue and margin forecasts.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $6.9 billion (and earnings per share of $7.49) by about July 2029, up from $5.7 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts, with the most bullish expecting $8.2 billion in earnings and the most bearish expecting $5.4 billion.
Want to understand why this Southern Copper valuation still comes out rich, even with higher forecast margins and revenue growth baked in? The gap between projected earnings power, the chosen future P/E multiple and the discount rate is where the story really sits.
Result: Fair Value of $167.79 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, Southern Copper’s story can change quickly if rising operating costs reduce margins or if project disruptions delay the planned production and earnings profile.
Find out about the key risks to this Southern Copper narrative.
Next Steps
With mixed signals around Southern Copper’s valuation and outlook, it makes sense to check the underlying data yourself instead of relying on a single narrative. To weigh the 1 or more risks against the 1 or more rewards that investors are focused on, start with the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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