Eli Lilly Stock Has Skyrocketed. Novo Nordisk Has Crashed. 1 Number Explains Why They're Not Even Close Anymore.
Key Points
Both companies are giants in diabetes and obesity treatments.
Lately, Eli Lilly has moved ahead in the obesity segment.
Things could change, however, as both firms continue to innovate.
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) are far and away the heavyweights in the global market for GLP-1 drugs, which effectively treat both type 2 diabetes and obesity.
And that market is exploding, particularly for obesity drugs. The global market for obesity medicines reached $66 billion in 2025. Bloomberg predicts it will hit $120 billion by 2030.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Yet Lilly's share price is up 13.4% this year and 58% over the past 52 weeks, while Novo Nordisk shares are up just 0.4% this year and down 5% over the past 52 weeks. Since July 2024, Novo has plummeted 62%.
What explains the divergence, with Lilly soaring and Novo collapsing?
I would point to one number to explain it: market share in the obesity market, which is expected to grow faster than the diabetes drug market. The two drug companies collectively control about 87% of global prescription obesity drug revenue.
Image source: Getty Images.
But Lilly is currently dominant in that market, with a majority 60% share, primarily driven by the popularity and efficacy of its Zepbound GLP-1 obesity drug.
That's not to say things can't change. Until recently, most GLP-1 drugs were delivered via injectables (i.e., needles). This spring, Novo Nordisk introduced its obesity drug Wegovy in pill form, and it's off to a very fast start. As a result, the Danish firm revised its sales and profit forecasts higher.
So, stay tuned. The GLP-1 race is far from over, and both firms are committed to winning.
Matthew Benjamin has positions in Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.