Consumer confidence in the US rose to a five-month high in July, and the intention to buy durable goods reached a new high in nearly ten months, and AI commercialization prospects raised employment concerns

The Zhitong Finance App learned that consumer confidence in the US improved for the second month in a row in July and rose to the highest level in five months, reflecting the easing of pessimism among American households about the economy as economic expectations improved and gasoline prices remained low recently. According to data released by the University of Michigan in the US on Friday, the final value of the consumer confidence index rose to 55.2 in July, higher than the initial value of 54.4, and higher than the June level.

The survey was conducted from June 23 to July 27. During the investigation, gasoline prices in the US fell to their lowest level since March. Although the situation in the Middle East was once again tense and fueled a recovery in oil prices, overall oil prices were still lower than the high levels during the previous war.

Joanne Hsu, head of consumer research at the University of Michigan, said that consumers are still mainly concerned about issues directly related to household finances, such as purchasing power, while factors such as political and geographical conflicts are relatively backward. She pointed out that despite recent improvements in consumer confidence, the index is still 11% lower than the same period last year, indicating that households as a whole are still more cautious about the US economy.

Meanwhile, US consumer spending remains resilient. According to data released earlier this week, actual consumer spending in the US increased 0.4% month-on-month after inflation in June, one of the biggest increases in nearly a year, indicating that even though prices are still high, US household consumption demand is still steady.

According to disaggregated data, consumers' willingness to buy durable goods (such as automobiles, household appliances, etc.) rose to the highest level since October last year; both sub-indices reflecting current economic conditions and future economic expectations improved from last month. Furthermore, the confidence of respondents of all income levels, ages, educational backgrounds, and political positions increased, and the long-term economic outlook index rose to its highest level in a year.

In terms of inflation expectations, consumers expect the inflation rate to be 4.2% in the next year, lower than last month's level; long-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years will remain at 3.3%, the same as in June.

Notably, artificial intelligence (AI) has become an increasingly important topic in consumer surveys. Joanne Hsu said that overall, respondents' evaluations of AI are still negative. Although some consumers believe AI can help improve production efficiency, more are concerned that it may have a negative impact on the job market.