The Bank Millennium S.A. (WSE:MIL) Half-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Investors in Bank Millennium S.A. (WSE:MIL) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.7% to close at zł20.30 following the release of its half-yearly results. Revenues came in 3.7% below expectations, at zł3.2b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of zł0.99 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Bank Millennium's seven analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be zł6.85b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 2.7% to zł1.19. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of zł6.75b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł1.25 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Bank Millennium
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at zł18.23, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Bank Millennium, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at zł20.90 and the most bearish at zł14.10 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Bank Millennium's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 0.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Bank Millennium is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Bank Millennium's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Bank Millennium going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Bank Millennium that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.