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    Is BlackBerry (TSX:BB) Still Below Fair Value Or Has The Rally Gone Too Far?

    Simply Wall St·07/31/2026 00:22:28
    語音播報

    BlackBerry (TSX:BB) is back in focus after a sharp swing in its share price, with the stock up about 61% over the past 3 months but down 34% in the past month.

    See our latest analysis for BlackBerry.

    BlackBerry’s recent swings come after a strong run, with the year to date share price return of 127.01% and 1-year total shareholder return of 132.35% now meeting a sharp 30-day share price decline of 33.84%. Recent attention around its AtHoc upgrades, investor conference appearance, and interest in its QNX and Alloy Kore platforms has likely sharpened views on both its growth potential and execution risks. This helps explain the mix of a 61.01% 90-day share price return and 86.03% 3-year total shareholder return alongside weakness in the past month.

    If BlackBerry’s volatility has you thinking more broadly about where to find the next wave of software and AI opportunities, it could be worth checking a screener of 65 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash

    For BlackBerry, a 127% year to date gain colliding with a 34% drop in a month raises a simple issue. Are investors rapidly reassessing the business, or just swinging between optimism and doubt on the same story?

    Most Popular Narrative: 26.9% Undervalued

    According to the most followed narrative on BlackBerry, the recent CA$11.85 close sits below an estimated fair value of CA$16.22, which puts the current volatility into a different light.

    A $200M bet made for entirely the wrong reasons, on what looked like a car stereo OS acquired from a speaker company, has become an 83%-gross-margin royalty machine embedded in 275 million vehicles, with a $950M contracted backlog, and a Nvidia partnership positioning it as the safety infrastructure layer that physical AI cannot be commercially deployed without. The market mispriced it for a decade because everyone remembered it as a dead phone company. It turns out the best investments are sometimes the ones nobody planned.

    Read the complete narrative.

    The fair value in that narrative leans heavily on how QNX royalties, physical AI workloads and software margins shape BlackBerry’s future earnings power and cash flows. The key question is how those ingredients combine in the long run.

    According to artoflosing, that gap between price and fair value sits on a detailed view of QNX’s royalty backlog, Secure Communications contract visibility, and the timing of physical AI revenues. It is one perspective, but it gives you a clear framework to test against your own expectations.

    Result: Fair Value of CA$16.22 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, BlackBerry’s story can change quickly if automotive production slows and QNX backlog converts more slowly, or if physical AI competitors secure key design wins first.

    Find out about the key risks to this BlackBerry narrative.

    Another View On BlackBerry’s Valuation

    The community narrative points to BlackBerry trading below a fair value of CA$16.22, yet the market’s own signals tell a different story. At around 82.9x P/E compared to a fair ratio of 27.3x, the stock screens as expensive, with the broader North American Software industry at 29.7x and peers around 90.4x. That kind of gap can mean either a lot of optimism is already in the price or that the market expects very different earnings ahead. Which side of that story do you think fits best with your own expectations?

    For a closer look at how this valuation stacks up against fundamentals and peers in practical terms, it can help to walk through a structured breakdown of the numbers and assumptions that sit behind this high P/E: See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

    TSX:BB P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026
    TSX:BB P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026

    Next Steps

    Given the mixed mood in this BlackBerry discussion, now is the time to review the underlying data for yourself and move quickly to form a view based on 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond BlackBerry?

    If BlackBerry has sharpened your interest in finding strong opportunities, do not stop here. The next move could come from a stock you have not checked yet.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.