Can these ASX ETFs recover after a brutal gold sell-off?

Gold miners were among the hottest corners of the ASX ETF market during 2025 and early 2026.

Now the mood has changed sharply.

At the time of writing, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (ASX: GDX) is down more than 33% over six months, while the Betashares Global Gold Miners ETF – Currency Hedged (ASX: MNRS) has fallen more than 36%.

Zoom out, however, and the picture is different. GDX ETF remains up more than 100% over two years, while MNRS ETF has gained more than 96%.

So, after a spectacular rise and painful reversal, could these gold miners ETFs shine again?

From market leaders to major laggards

Both ETFs provide exposure to many of the world's largest gold businesses, including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Barrick Mining Corp (NYSE: B).

Their strong two-year returns reflect how powerful the previous gold cycle became.

At certain points during 2025, MNRS ETF had gained 149%, while GDX ETF had risen 139%, making them the two strongest-performing ASX-listed ETFs for the period. Gold delivered its best annual performance since 1979.

The price of gold benefited from central bank buying, tariff concerns, geopolitical tensions, expanding US debt, and fears around currency debasement.

Australian investors piled into the theme with ETFs recording billions of inflows during 2025 and at the beginning of this year.

For gold miners, rising bullion prices can be especially powerful. Revenue increases with gold, while many operating costs remain relatively fixed. That can produce rapid margin expansion and outsized gains.

Unfortunately, that leverage cuts both ways.

Why has the shine faded?

The first issue may simply be that expectations ran too far.

After triple-digit gains, gold miners were no longer overlooked. When sentiment cooled, investors had substantial profits to protect, leaving the sector vulnerable to a sharp reversal.

Capital has also found new homes.

Artificial intelligence remains a dominant market theme, but attention has broadened beyond software and mega-cap technology companies. Semiconductors, data centre infrastructure, electricity, and copper have attracted investors looking for the bottlenecks behind the AI buildout.

South Korean equities performed strongly through semiconductor exposure, while copper and energy transition metals benefited from data centre demand, constrained supply, and electrification.

Gold miners must compete with those themes for investor attention.

What could drive another rally?

Gold miners could recover if the gold price begins another sustained advance.

Renewed geopolitical stress, continued central bank demand, lower real interest rates, a weaker US dollar, or further concerns about government debt could restore interest in the metal as a safe-haven asset.

Company fundamentals will matter too. Gold miners need to convert elevated bullion prices into stronger cash flow while controlling labour, energy, and development costs.

These ETFs do not offer pure exposure to gold. They own operating businesses exposed to management decisions, mine performance, inflation, political risk, and capital allocation.

Foolish takeaway

The recent falls in GDX ETF and MNRS ETF show why thematic ETFs can be difficult to time.

Both funds have delivered outstanding two-year gains, but investors who arrived near the peak have endured a brutal six months.

Gold miners may shine again. However, the next leg higher will probably require more than gold merely holding its value. The sector may need a fresh bullion rally, improving margins, and renewed investor appetite before its former market leadership returns.

The post Can these ASX ETFs recover after a brutal gold sell-off? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Leigh Gant has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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