Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | Global technology is fully blossoming in the direction of consumption in the hardest hit areas

[Anatomy Dashboard]

Although the Hong Kong stock index rose by 0.41% today, the technology stocks that rebounded yesterday fell unbearably. Of course, this is global. Overnight, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted by nearly 5%. The sharp drop in Korea's KOSPI index triggered a fusing mechanism, and the Nikkei 225 index plummeted by more than 2,700 points. A-share technology was also the hardest hit area.

The tipping point was that foreign media reported that our domestic DUV will soon be delivered in small batches, and the number of deliveries will be expanded next year. ASML then plummeted 8% and closed down 5.8%. Coupled with Nvidia's soaring CDS, CDS such as Oracle and Alphabet are also soaring, so it's impossible to hold back. Today, South Korea is also dancing, and the country is following South Korea. It feels like a boomerang. Objectively speaking, domestic DUV will not be that fast until actual mass production; otherwise, why is SMIC (00981) also falling?

The real reason is that they are worried that the AI money-burning model will be unsustainable. Furthermore, the market is paying close attention to the upcoming interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve. Interest rate futures show that traders expect the probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday is about 40%, and policy uncertainty will add additional variables to the market.

Changxin Technology (688825.SH)'s listing performance was impressive, and insurance, banking and other institutions involved in the investment have clearly benefited. In terms of insurance, in this strategic placement list, the four insurers of China People's Property Insurance Co., Ltd., China Life Insurance Co., Ltd., China Post Life Insurance Co., Ltd., and Taikang Life Insurance Co., Ltd. all received an allocation of 11.5473 million shares, corresponding to an allotment amount of about 100 million yuan. The lockdown period was 18 months. Based on the closing price of the first day, the market value of the shares held by the above 4 insurance companies was about 566 million yuan, an increase of about 466 million yuan over the allocation cost corresponding to the issue price, and the total book value of the 4 insurers increased by about 1.86 billion yuan. China Financial Insurance (02328): The interim report is about to be released. Since the third quarter, natural disasters such as typhoons, torrential rain, and floods have been frequent, and the market is worried that financial insurance companies' compensation will rise further. However, according to data from the Ministry of Emergency Management, as of the end of June, the cumulative economic loss of natural disasters this year was 42.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1%. Therefore, the overall decline in natural disasters is expected to improve the company's compensation in the first half of the year. Today's increase is over 8%.

On the banking side, ICBC (01398), China Construction Bank (00939), Agricultural Bank (01288), Bank of China (03988), and Bank of Communications (03328) all participated in the investment in Changxin Technology through its AIC. In addition to this, there are other banks. If you roughly calculate the closing price of 49.00 yuan/share on the first day, the market value of shares held by these banks has reached 132.3 billion yuan. Today's strongest performer was Huishang Bank (03698), which rose more than 6%.

On the evening of July 27, Dark Side of the Moon announced the weight of the open source Kimi K3 model, released a technical report, and simultaneously opened the three underlying infrastructure (Infra) technologies supporting K3 training: MoonEP, FlashKDA, and AgentEnv. CEO of Hugging Face publicly stated that Kimi K3 received over 4,000 likes in just 30 minutes, topped the platform trend list, and set a record for the fastest release growth since the platform was founded. Chinasoft International (00354) recently officially signed a token sharing and joint innovation cooperation agreement with Dark Side of the Moon for the “Moon Landing Program”. It's up nearly 5% today.

According to foreign media data, in the first half of this year, Chinese brands already accounted for more than one-third of European plug-in hybrid car sales, a record high. The EU's countervailing tariffs on Chinese pure electric vehicles have already been implemented, and plug-in hybrid models have not yet been included in the scope of the levy, which has become a new breakthrough for Chinese car companies to leverage the European market. The breakthrough direction for auto stocks still depends on overseas. Zero Sports Auto (09863) and Ideal Automobile-W (02015) rose more than 3%, Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Geely Auto (00175) rose more than 1%.

Automobiles have entered the era of competing for intelligent driving. The leading Horizon Robot-W (09660) is strengthening against the newly launched Momenta. Generally speaking, Momenta's advantage is software. Horizon is strong in developing its own chips, but Horizon HSD is also quite impressive. In 2025, Horizon's licensing and service business revenue reached 1,935 billion yuan, accounting for more than half of the total revenue. This portion of revenue is already close to Momenta's annual revenue. The more powerful chip, the Journey series, has shipped a total of 11 million sets, and is the only one in China to mass-produce self-developed smart driving chips; in April 2026, the domestic passenger car smart driving chip installed market accounted for 13.6%, second only to Nvidia, and the number one domestically produced smart driving chip. Compared with Nvidia's general-purpose chips, Horizon has an advantage. The chip architecture fully serves smart driving, and is more advantageous in terms of cost. Coupled with the cost advantage and service capabilities of localization, the performance disadvantage compared to Nvidia is well compensated, and the extended cycle share will continue to increase. Unlike many domestic peers that only provide nude films, the company has the advantage of combining software and hardware, and is an HSD (Horizon SuperDrive) full-stack solution with an urban NOA algorithm. Downstream customers cover 25 car companies including BYD, Ideal, Changan, Guangzhou Automobile, Geely, Volkswagen, and Chery, and 100+ fixed models, all suitable from 100,000 entry-level trams to high-end new energy sources, and domestic production replaces the core standard. Let's take a look at the last question. That is, will car companies develop their own chips, will it have an impact on them? I have to say that the previous decline was due to this factor. Self-development was limited to very small and well-off car companies, but in the current situation, from an economic point of view, finding a more advanced third party is the best solution. Therefore, the dividend wave of smart driving cannot bypass the horizon. Furthermore, when benchmarking Momenta, the valuation is clearly underestimated, and the market will inevitably correct errors. Today, it has risen by more than 8%.

The brain-computer interface concept mentioned yesterday continues to ferment, and the China Disabled Persons' Federation revealed a key message: it will push technological disability assistance products into the scope of relevant subsidies and lower the usage threshold for people with disabilities. This means that brain-computer interface rehabilitation devices are expected to be incorporated into government procurement or medical insurance payment systems in the future, changing from “dark technology in laboratories” to rehabilitation tools that ordinary patients can use. Institutions expect the market size to grow from US$2.41 billion in 2025 to US$12.11 billion in 2035. The compound annual growth rate during the forecast period (to 2035) is 15.8%, with plenty of room for long-term growth. Nanjing Panda Electronics Co., Ltd. (00553) rose by nearly 5%.

According to the June News Agency Zero data released a few days ago, food and beverage revenue increased 1.2% year over year and 0.6 percentage points month over month, showing a marginal improvement trend. Status of results after the rectification of Little Vegetable Garden (00999): The introduction of a VIP membership system has stimulated a recovery in diner traffic, increased member repurchases, reduced store model weight, and supply chain support. The first food production line at the Maanshan Central Factory was put into operation in May and is expected to achieve full production throughout the year. Annual revenue is expected to exceed 700 million yuan, further strengthening cost and scale advantages to support store expansion. Today, it rose nearly 6% again, and Yum China (09987) rose nearly 4%. Other varieties are busy (01768), following the chain direction, surging by more than 11%. Dongpeng Beverage (09980): It plans to build a new production base project in Zhengzhou worth 1 billion yuan, and plans to invest more than 7% in the construction of 6 high-end beverage production lines.

Summer is the peak consumption season for education and training, and the demand for adult training and the marketing of online courses will increase markedly. China Oriental Education (00667) and Tianli International Holdings (01773) both increased 5%.

[Section Focus]

According to CCTV International Times, the Japan Meteorological Agency reports that today (July 28) at around 16:27 local time and at around 15:27 Beijing time, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake occurred in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. The maximum impact was “magnitude 7,” which is the highest level of magnitude 10 in Japan, with a depth of 10 kilometers.

Kyushu/Tohoku, Japan is the world's core production area for semiconductor materials, mature manufacturing processes, and automotive chips. Japanese photoresists, silicon wafers, power devices, and MLCCs have a very high global monopoly. According to reports, TSMC Kumamoto plant personnel were evacuated after the earthquake in Japan.

It is still unknown how much the earthquake affected the relevant factories. Follow-up observations will be made to see if there is a tsunami and whether there are still strong earthquakes. Good domestic alternatives: SMIC (00981), Huahong Semiconductor (01347), ASMPT (00522), Tianyue Advanced (06882).

[Individual Stock Mining]

SF Holdings (06936): Overseas logistics continues to grow rapidly, and large share buybacks boost confidence

Recently, the company spent approximately HK$14.3293 million to repurchase 434,000 shares. The company reported revenue of 74.142 billion yuan for the first quarter of 2026, +6.14% year-on-year; net profit to mother was 2,526 billion yuan, +13.05% year-on-year. Total revenue for June 2026 was 27.880 billion yuan, +6.19% YoY.

Comment: The net interest rate of SF Express continues to improve, and the growth rate continues to be high, accelerating quarter by quarter. The company's express logistics business had revenue of 20.017 billion yuan in June, with a business volume of 1,389 billion tickets; single ticket revenue was 1,441 yuan, rising year-on-year for 4 consecutive months. Overseas logistics continues to grow rapidly. The supply chain and international business are the company's second growth curve, with revenue of 7.863 billion yuan, +24.97% year-on-year, which is the core driving force for overall growth. The company has the largest private cargo airline in Asia. It operates and manages 111 freighters, has 90 of its own, and has scarce civil aviation rights and time resources; domestic air cargo and mail volume has long accounted for about 33% of the country's domestic cargo and mail traffic. Ezhou Huahu Airport is the only professional cargo aviation hub in Asia, providing overnight access to the whole country and connecting the world every other day. In 2025, cargo and mail throughput increased 44% year-on-year, and international cargo and mail throughput increased 85%. B-side customers have a stable chassis, and multiple segmented tracks have gradually achieved independent profits. 1) More than 95% of China's top 500 domestic enterprises use SF Express logistics services, and demand for manufacturing companies going overseas, independent cross-border stations, and new energy foreign trade logistics continues to rise. 2) The company has stable cooperation with large-scale cross-border e-commerce platforms such as SHEIN and Temu; a large number of independent sellers, foreign trade factories, cross-border air transportation and overseas warehouse delivery. 3) New Balance Shanghai Smart Warehouse Distribution Center, automated warehouse integration implementation. 4) There are more than 100 cold chain sub-warehouses and cold chain main line networks across the country, covering temperature-controlled transportation of fresh food in more than 340 cities. Long-term seasonal supply chain agreements for fresh production areas such as cherries, crispy plums, and lychees across the country. 5) There are very few domestic logistics providers with the full cold chain qualification of GSP pharmaceuticals across the country, covering high-margin temperature-controlled transportation of biologics, insulin, vaccines, etc. A long-term framework for cold chain distribution of pharmaceuticals across the country for a number of listed pharmaceutical companies. The company and Jitu Express have mutual shareholding (both parties hold 9.98%/4.29%); SF Express is responsible for cross-border main line air and sea transportation, and Jitu provides terminal outlets in Southeast Asia to make up for the shortcomings in overseas delivery. Overseas business project layout. The company continues to undertake overseas spare parts warehouses and overseas local distribution projects for Chinese enterprises, and has landed in overseas supply chain centers in Thailand, Australia and Europe. SF Holdings developed its own logistics AI model to continuously reduce the operating costs of the entire network. The company spent 5.934 billion yuan and repurchased a total of 158 million shares, boosting confidence.