Patek Wealth Management pointed out that the probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as reflected in the market is abnormally high. “Although we can't completely rule out the risk of unexpected interest rate hikes, the current market pricing looks too high,” senior US economist Xiao Cui said in a report. Cui believes that the latest US inflation data and statements from Federal Reserve officials reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% this week. However, she said that officials continue to view inflation as the main policy risk, which opened the door to tightening policies as early as September. Cui also believes that regional Federal Reserve Bank governors Logan and Hamak may cast two negative votes in favor of raising interest rates by 25 basis points, and that Kashkari may cast a third negative vote.

Patek Wealth Management pointed out that the probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as reflected in the market is abnormally high. “Although we can't completely rule out the risk of unexpected interest rate hikes, the current market pricing looks too high,” senior US economist Xiao Cui said in a report. Cui believes that the latest US inflation data and statements from Federal Reserve officials reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% this week. However, she said that officials continue to view inflation as the main policy risk, which opened the door to tightening policies as early as September. Cui also believes that regional Federal Reserve Bank governors Logan and Hamak may cast two negative votes in favor of raising interest rates by 25 basis points, and that Kashkari may cast a third negative vote.