Recently, Brent crude oil futures have regained their upward trend. The main contract once approached the $100 mark, with a weekly increase of more than 12%. According to the news, the risk of shipping in the Red Sea worsened again in late July. The Houthis attacked transit tankers one after another, compounded by factors such as the implementation of production cuts by Middle Eastern oil producers, etc., and international oil prices were rapidly boosted. To this end, the international investment bank Goldman Sachs has also issued a number of in-depth commodity reports to break down geographical premiums. Goldman Sachs believes that the risk of rising oil prices significantly outweighs the downside, and that the elimination of summer inventories will support its high operation in the short term. Goldman Sachs analyzed three types of scenarios for oil price expectations: the first is the benchmark neutral scenario. Assuming that the geographical situation in the Middle East eases and shipping gradually recovers, keeping “80 US dollars of Brent crude oil and 76 US dollars of WTI crude oil” unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2026; under the premise of normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in 2027, “the average price of Brent crude oil is 75 US dollars and WTI crude oil is 70 US dollars” throughout the year. The agency estimates that the global crude oil oversupply and demand will reach 3.2 million b/d in 2027, with long-term excess suppressing the price center. The second is an extreme upward scenario. If the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues until 2027, the Gulf crude oil production capacity will not be fully restored until the end of 2027. “Brent crude oil is expected to exceed 120 US dollars, and the average price will stand at 100 US dollars in 2027” in the fourth quarter of 2026; if the Strait of Mander and the Suez Canal are blocked simultaneously for a long time, oil prices will rise by an additional 25 US dollars/barrel. The third is a downward bottom-line scenario. If global supply exceeds expectations and energy demand continues to shrink, Brent crude oil will drop to a minimum of $60 at the end of 2027, but the probability of this scenario occurring is low.

Recently, Brent crude oil futures have regained their upward trend. The main contract once approached the $100 mark, with a weekly increase of more than 12%. According to the news, the risk of shipping in the Red Sea worsened again in late July. The Houthis attacked transit tankers one after another, compounded by factors such as the implementation of production cuts by Middle Eastern oil producers, etc., and international oil prices were rapidly boosted. To this end, the international investment bank Goldman Sachs has also issued a number of in-depth commodity reports to break down geographical premiums. Goldman Sachs believes that the risk of rising oil prices significantly outweighs the downside, and that the elimination of summer inventories will support its high operation in the short term. Goldman Sachs analyzed three types of scenarios for oil price expectations: the first is the benchmark neutral scenario. Assuming that the geographical situation in the Middle East eases and shipping gradually recovers, keeping “80 US dollars of Brent crude oil and 76 US dollars of WTI crude oil” unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2026; under the premise of normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in 2027, “the average price of Brent crude oil is 75 US dollars and WTI crude oil is 70 US dollars” throughout the year. The agency estimates that the global crude oil oversupply and demand will reach 3.2 million b/d in 2027, with long-term excess suppressing the price center. The second is an extreme upward scenario. If the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues until 2027, the Gulf crude oil production capacity will not be fully restored until the end of 2027. “Brent crude oil is expected to exceed 120 US dollars, and the average price will stand at 100 US dollars in 2027” in the fourth quarter of 2026; if the Strait of Mander and the Suez Canal are blocked simultaneously for a long time, oil prices will rise by an additional 25 US dollars/barrel. The third is a downward bottom-line scenario. If global supply exceeds expectations and energy demand continues to shrink, Brent crude oil will drop to a minimum of $60 at the end of 2027, but the probability of this scenario occurring is low.