Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:BIMBOA), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of Mex$105b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 11% to hit Mex$0.68 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Grupo Bimbo. de after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, Grupo Bimbo. de's ten analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be Mex$424.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 16% to Mex$3.18. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of Mex$425.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$3.20 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Grupo Bimbo. de
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at Mex$69.38. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Grupo Bimbo. de analyst has a price target of Mex$87.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at Mex$51.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Grupo Bimbo. de's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.6% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Grupo Bimbo. de is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$69.38, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Grupo Bimbo. de. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Grupo Bimbo. de going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Grupo Bimbo. de you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.