Wanlian Securities: Social Security's zero growth rate picked up month-on-month in June. It is recommended to focus on the three main investment opportunities in the consumer industry
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Wanlian Securities released a research report stating that the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan to Expand Consumption” clearly defines quantitative and directional goals such as reaching about 60 trillion yuan in total retail sales of social consumer goods by 2030, a marked increase in consumer consumption rate, and a steady increase in the share of service consumption expenditure, and the fundamental role of consumption in economic development has been further strengthened. In the context of policy support, it is recommended to focus on three main lines to lay out investment opportunities in the consumer industry: (1) improving the quality of service consumption and benefiting democracy. There is a strong signal that the policy focus is shifting from goods to services. The policy orientation to promote consumption remained stable in 2026, but due to the adjustment of residents' balance sheets, it will still take time for fundamentals to recover. (2) Emotional consumption and the main line of trendy domestic products. In the era of consumption classification, emotional consumption racetracks such as trendy games, ancient gold, domestic beauty, and outdoor sportswear are booming. (3) Demand recovery is the main line. The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historically low level, and there is room for restoration.
The main views of Wanlian Securities are as follows:
In 2026M6, China's social network was zero YoY +1.0%, and the growth rate picked up somewhat from month to month
In June 2026, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China was 4,269.1 billion yuan, +1.0% year-on-year, up 1.6 pct from the May growth rate, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive. In 2026M6, China's CPI was +1.0% year-on-year, compared with the M5 growth rate of -0.2pct. ① By consumption type: The growth rate of retail and catering revenue of M6 products in 2026 is recovering compared to M5. 2026M6 retail sales were +0.9% YoY, +1.6pct compared to M5; Food and Beverage Revenue +1.2% YoY, +0.6pct YoY compared to M5. Retail sales of products of enterprises above the limit were -2.2% year-on-year, +3.0 pct compared to the M5 growth rate. ② By region: 2026M6 retail sales of urban consumer goods in China were +1.2% YoY, compared with M5 growth rate +2.1pct; 2026M6 retail sales of rural consumer goods were +2.5% YoY, compared with M5 growth rate +1.0pct, the rural growth rate was significantly higher than that of urban areas.
Essential consumer categories performed well; only beverages and petroleum products contracted in growth
2026M6, of the 16 categories of products above the limit, 9 categories of products (food products, daily necessities, Chinese and Western pharmaceuticals, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles, cosmetics, cultural and office supplies, communication equipment) showed positive growth. Among them, only beverages (+5.8%) had a lower growth rate compared to 2026M5; 7 categories of products (gold and silver jewelry, household appliances and audiovisual equipment, furniture, petroleum and products, automobiles, construction and decoration, sports and entertainment products) only grew. Negative growth in petroleum and products (-5.1%) Further expansion. ① Required: Food products (+7.9%), daily necessities (+3.9%), and Chinese and Western pharmaceuticals (+4.4%). The growth rate has expanded compared to 2026M5. ② Optional: Tobacco and alcohol (+12.1%), clothing, shoes and hats (+3.9%), cosmetics (+12.6%), and communication equipment (+16.5%) maintained positive growth and increased month-on-month; beverages (+5.8%) maintained positive growth but narrowed; gold and silver jewelry (-3.4%), household appliances and audio and video equipment (-8.7%), furniture (-6.6%), construction and decoration materials (-10.5%), and sports and entertainment products (-2.2%) maintained growth but declined in decline; The automotive category (-16.1%) remained negative The growth and decline remained unchanged; the petroleum and products category (-5.1%) maintained negative growth and the decline widened.
The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales in 1H2026 has slowed
In 1H2026, the national online retail sales volume was 10.71.5 billion yuan, +5.2% year-on-year, accounting for 40.5% of total retail sales of social consumer goods. Among them, the cumulative online retail sales of physical goods were 6429.6 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% over the previous year. Of the online retail sales of physical goods, food/drink/consumer goods increased by 16.8%/6.2%/1.3% respectively.
Risk factors: Policies are less strong than expected risks, consumption recovery falls short of expectations, macroeconomic growth falls short of expectations.