League of Nations Minsheng Securities: AI+ Cars Accelerate Evolution, Smart Driving & Robotics & Global Resonance

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to 2026H2, the trade-in policy will continue to support demand. The bank expects wholesale sales to reach 29.61 million units in 2026, +0.2% over the same period, driving a slight increase in the revenue of auto parts companies. Looking at intelligent electrification components > traditional components as a whole, intelligent > electrification > automotive electronics; in traditional parts, interior and exterior = chassis parts > tires > white body intelligent electric reshaping order. The global layout opens up long-term space for components, and is optimistic about the autonomous & new power industry chain+intelligent & robotic growth; it is recommended to focus on the intelligent & new power industry chain.

The main views of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows:

Looking ahead to 2026: Intelligence & globalization accelerate new industries such as humanoid robots and lack of electricity

Looking back at 2026Q1, revenue side: The auto parts sector's revenue was 255.14 billion yuan, +2.1% year over year, and -19.5% month over month. The month-on-month decline was mainly due to the industry's traditional low season in the first quarter. Profit side: The gross margin of the auto parts sector was 18.0%, +0.5pct year over year and +0.4pct month-on-month. Due to the combined impact of factors such as scale effects, rising raw material costs, and foreign exchange, net interest rates without return to mother declined year-on-year and increased month-on-month. Looking ahead to 2026H2, volume side: The trade-in policy continues to support demand. The bank expects wholesale sales to reach 29.61 million units in 2026, +0.2% year-on-year, driving a slight increase in the revenue of auto parts companies. Structural side: Looking at intelligent electrification components > traditional components as a whole, intelligent electrification components, intelligent > electrification > automotive electronics; in traditional parts, interior and exterior = chassis parts > tires > white body; in the new industry, humanoid robots/lack of electricity are in the early stages of industry development, and there is a lot of space, changes, and fluctuations. Valuation side: Auto parts 2020 to the present, 2022 present, 2024 present, 2026 present, 2026.6.18 average PE is 42.58/37.85/35.02/33.56/30.55 times, respectively. The current valuation is at a historically low level, and there is plenty of room for improvement.

Customer dimension: Sales growth Customers are still the preferred choice to go overseas from North America to Europe

On the domestic side, in 2026, BYD's leading position in the domestic market below 150,000 yuan was stable, and passenger car sales increased rapidly. Therefore, the OEM industry chain with large sales growth or high growth rate is still the first choice. I am optimistic about the new forces (zero run) + autonomy (Geely & BYD) industry chain, followed by NIO, Xiaopeng, and Huawei. On the offshore side, T-chain overseas production capacity continues to usher in a revenue release period and a decline in profits; Europe's new energy conversion rate continues to rise, and Chinese auto parts are expected to achieve global expansion from North America to Europe with continuous accumulation of overseas experience and expanding overseas production capacity, costs and technical advantages.

Product dimension: Smart driving accelerates mass production of robots, electricity shortage, high demand

1) Intelligence: Smart driving in China is moving from popularization of functions to advanced penetration. Smart driving equality is expected to continue to accelerate in 2026. The VLA model, self-developed smart driving chips, and integrated cabin driving architectures will continue to be implemented, driving car companies towards systematic competition of “algorithm model+vehicle-side computing power+central architecture”. Overseas, Tesla FSD's cumulative mileage has exceeded 10 billion miles, superimposed AI computing power reserves and small-scale unsupervised operation of RoboTaxi, and continues to lead commercial verification; 2) Humanoid robots: Resonance with global tech giants in 2026, the industrialization process will enter a period of acceleration. The Tesla Optimus V3 is expected to be released in mid-year and mass production will begin in July-August. Domestic policies and IPOs with two-wheel drive, automotive OEMs and technology companies have entered the market strongly. The industrial chain focuses on T-chain core assets; 3) Shortage of electricity: Strong demand for AIDC's power supply business is strong, and power shortages in North America drive valuation reshaping. The iteration of demand-side AI models continues to accelerate in the intelligent era. Computing power and electricity demand are rising rapidly at the same time, and data center demand is increasing, driving a high increase in US electricity load. Overseas gas generator manufacturers are full of orders, and production capacity expansion is accelerating to meet AIDC's booming demand. The diesel engine market shows a market pattern dominated by leading foreign investors, and domestic production is breaking through at an accelerated pace.

Investment advice

Intelligent electric reshaping order, global layout opens up long-term space for components, optimistic about the autonomous & new power industry chain+intelligent & robotic incremental; recommended focus on intelligent & new power industrial chain: 1) Intelligent: recommend intelligent driving - [Bethel, Keboda, Desai Xiwei], recommend smart cockpit - [Jifeng Co., Ltd.], recommend focusing on operators [Wenyuan Zhixing, Cao Cao Travel, Little Horse Zhixing (joint coverage)]; 2) New power industry chain: recommend T chain [Top Group, Xinquan Shares, Double Ring Transmission) [Move]; Recommended H Chain- [Xingyu Co., Ltd., Huguang Co., Ltd. ]. Robots: We recommend [Tuopu Group, Xinquan Co., Ltd., Bethel, Silver Wheel Co., Ltd., Joyson Electronics, iKodi, Double Ring Drive, Longsheng Technology] for auto parts robots. Shortage of electricity in North America: Rapid growth in AI computing power has led to an increase in demand for data center construction and cooling. In terms of power, it is recommended to focus on “Weichai Power, Silver Wheel Co., Ltd.”

Risk warning: Passenger car industry sales fall short of expectations; intelligent penetration rate falls short of expectations; robot industry development falls short of expectations; customer development falls short of expectations; AIDC progress falls short of expectations; risk of increased market competition.