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To own Apple, you generally need to believe its massive device base and expanding Services and payments ecosystem can keep deepening user engagement and monetization. The new American Express “Pay with Points with Apple Pay” integration reinforces that ecosystem story but does not materially change the near term focus on the upcoming iPhone cycle as the key catalyst, or on regulatory and legal scrutiny of App Store and services economics as the most immediate risk.
The most relevant recent announcement here is Apple’s record US$31,000 million in Q2 Services revenue at a 76 percent gross margin across 2.5 billion active devices. American Express embedding rewards directly into Apple Pay fits neatly into that Services and payments flywheel, strengthening the case that ecosystem depth, not just hardware launches, could be an important support for Apple’s next phase of value creation.
Yet against this strength, fresh legal and regulatory challenges to Apple’s services and ecosystem model are risks investors should be aware of if...
Read the full narrative on Apple (it's free!)
Apple's narrative projects $583.8 billion revenue and $161.7 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 8.9% yearly revenue growth and about a $39.1 billion earnings increase from $122.6 billion today.
Uncover how Apple's forecasts yield a $312.72 fair value, in line with its current price.
Some of the most optimistic analysts already expected Apple to reach about US$655,000 million in revenue and US$189,000 million in earnings by 2029, so news that tightens Apple Pay and Services integration could either reinforce that bullish view of ecosystem led growth or prompt a rethink if it collides with rising regulatory pressure on how Apple monetizes its platform.
Explore 69 other fair value estimates on Apple - why the stock might be worth as much as 25% more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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