OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand forecast three times and raised its 2027 outlook

The Zhitong Finance App learned that a copy of the OPEC monthly report released on Monday showed that the organization lowered the 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels per day, marking the third time in a row that it has lowered its forecast.

Compared to other forecasting agencies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the OPEC still believes that consumption has been less affected since the outbreak of the war in Iran. OPEC said the global economy is likely to perform better for the rest of the year and raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027.

The war actually closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important oil channels in the world, for several months, limiting production of millions of barrels in the Middle East. Production is beginning to resume as Iran and the US reach a mid-term peace agreement, although a new round of military strikes has once again raised concerns about shipments.

In a report posted on its website, OPEC said: “The global economic growth momentum in the first half of 2026 has generally remained resilient.” “If energy markets and trade flows stabilize further, the potential easing of geopolitical tension could provide some upside for global growth in the second half of 2026.”

Current forecasts lower the expected increase in oil demand this year from the previous 970,000 barrels per day. For 2027, OPEC expects oil demand to increase by 1.94 million barrels per day, which is 210,000 barrels per day higher than previously forecast.

OPEC+, made up of allies such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, previously agreed to resume production increases from April, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz prevented it from raising production to the agreed quota level.

Citing second-hand data sources used by OPEC to monitor production, the report said that the average daily production of OPEC+ crude oil in June was 36.28 million barrels, an increase of about 3 million barrels per day compared to May, as the Gulf countries began to resume production interrupted by the Iran war.

The May data includes the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1.