Berenberg Says Market Reaction to AstraZeneca's Wainua Late-stage Trial Miss 'Overdone'; Price Target, Estimates Revised

04:27 AM EDT, 07/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg updated its model for AstraZeneca (AZN.L, AZN.ST) to account for the drugmaker's phase 3 trial miss for Wainua, or eplontersen, in patients with transthyretin-mediated amyloid cardiomyopathy. "We lower our price target for AstraZeneca to reflect this and a smaller R&D premium, given other disappointments in the late-stage pipeline this year. We note surprise positives such as tozorakimab P3 success in [Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease] with a new pipeline addition in a PDE3/4 inhibitor for COPD from Sino Biopharm. SERENA-4 (camizestrant in 1L breast cancer) and AVANZAR (Datroway in 1L lung cancer) are the final major readouts this year and more risky. However, the reaction to Wainua is overdone; we forecast USD81bn of revenue in 2030 (target is 80bn) and believe the pipeline is full and diversified," analysts said Monday, adding that the risk-reward profile for upcoming catalysts tilts to the upside. The research firm noted that AstraZeneca is testing its new lung cancer treatment combo involving Datroway across three upcoming trials, with results for Avanzar due in the second half. Analysts believe Avanzar is still the "most likely" trial to succeed and could yield $3.3 billion in peak sales, rising to $10 billion if all three studies succeed. Against this backdrop, Berenberg reduced its price target for the London stock to 160 pounds sterling from 170 pounds, with an unchanged buy rating. The research firm's full-year 2026 to 2028 sales forecasts were also marginally lowered.