Shen Wan Hongyuan: Maintaining China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) “Buy” Ratings and Delivering High-Price Orders to Help Release Performance

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shen Wan Hongyuan released a research report stating that China Shipbuilding (00317) was adjusted to 21.5, 284, and 36.2 billion yuan in 26-28, corresponding to an increase in net profit to mother for 26-28 to 20/26/4.5 billion yuan (original forecast of 15, 24, 4.3 billion yuan), and the corresponding PE rating was 8, 6, and 4 times to maintain a “buy” rating. Currently, the company's A/H share PO (market value order ratio) is about 0.58/0.23 times, which is at a low cyclical level. Along with rising shipping prices and improved production efficiency, there is still room for improvement in the company's long-term performance.

Shen Wan Hongyuan's main views are as follows:

The shipbuilding boom continues to rise, and production capacity for high-end ship models is even scarce

At the industry level, new shipbuilding prices continued to rise in April-6, up 0.42% from the beginning of '26. Demand for tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships resonated, supporting the operation of high ship prices. Currently, global shipyards have full schedules. Orders cover about 4.3 years, and high-quality production capacity is still scarce. The supply of advantageous ship types such as feeder vessels and tankers is tight, and high-quality shipyards have strong bargaining power. As the downstream shipping boom spreads to shipbuilders, high ship prices are expected to continue to support the long-term profit center of shipping companies.

Production schedules are increasing year by year, and delivery of high-priced orders helps achieve results

Under shipyard weighted caliber, the company delivered about 210,000 CGT in 26Q2, up 24% year on year and 12% month on month. On the production schedule side, under shipyard weighted measures, the company's CGT production schedule increased by about 10%, 16%, and 49% year-on-year respectively in 26-28, and the pace of long-term delivery was clear. In terms of handheld orders, under shipyard weighted caliber, the company's handheld order amount is about 10.3 billion US dollars. Looking at shipyards, Huangpu Wenchong is centered on container ships, with CGT accounting for about 82%; Guangzhou Shipbuilding's international orders are concentrated on oil tankers and container ships, accounting for 37% and 31% respectively. Adequate order reserves and medium- to long-term production schedule growth provide a foundation for subsequent profit release.

Branch box boats stand out as leaders, and the advantages of special ship types enhance profitability

The company's core strength lies in Huangpu Wenchong's regional container ship and special ship capabilities. Huangpu Wenchong has formed the “Honghu” brand series of ships. It has a leading global advantage in the field of 3-6,000 TEU crates, and has gradually realized serial orders and batch construction. Branch ships benefit from supply chain regionalization, offshore route encryption, and fleet renewal requirements, and the boom is continuing. Batch construction helps dilute the cost of a single ship, shorten the construction cycle, improve the efficiency of production organization, and promote a steady improvement in the company's profit margin.

Risk Alerts

New orders received by civilian ships fell short of expectations, orders for non-civilian products declined, shipping sentiment declined, steel prices rose sharply, and RMB appreciated sharply, and order delivery fell short of expectations.