Smart decision reference｜The current market trend is low, and the variety with a low bottom is relatively easy to be sought after
[Editor-in-chief Guan Shi]
In a situation where the trend of A-shares is not ideal, Hong Kong stocks instead highlighted the cost performance ratio. The Hang Seng Index continued to improve last week.
With the recent resurgence of the US-Iran conflict, there has been no major movement in oil prices, which shows that the overall situation is manageable. The focus is on whether Israel takes the opportunity to make matters worse.
From July 14 to 15, the US PPI and CPI were released. Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will testify on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee on July 14 and 15, respectively. Inflation data will be the core topic of the hearing.
On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics will release major economic data for June, such as GDP, industrial value added, fixed asset investment, social zero, etc. for the second quarter to observe the overall data situation.
The major technology event is coming to an end. SK Hynix's US stock surged 12.76% on the first day of listing. The CEO warned that the 27-year memory shortage will be the most severe in history, and the imbalance between supply and demand may continue beyond 2030. Changxin Technology, a leading domestic DRAM company, began an IPO on July 16. Its pricing and subscription popularity will be the focus of the market. Nvidia senior roadshow organized by Dammo: the single-season revenue exceeding 100 billion dollars is still accelerating, making it clear that Rubin Ultra has not been postponed. The various shocks in the early stages are expected to begin to ease later. Also, this week's semi-annual performance forecasts are being rolled out one after another, which is expected to have an impact on funding, especially technology giants such as TSMC and ASML.
Overall, the current market trend is low, and bottom types, such as pharmaceuticals, are relatively easy to be sought after, while the higher-level ones are most afraid of being weak. The industry incident that has been discussed a lot is still the domestic Chang10B launch on Friday. Chang10B was successfully recovered. The single launch cost for medium and large rockets can be directly reduced by more than 70%, leveling the commercial price level of Falcon 9. Aerospace would be better combined with 6G.
The WAIC Artificial Intelligence Conference (July 17-20) became the biggest highlight. The real Huawei Atlas 950 SuperPod may debut globally at the conference, and the Gemini 3.5 Pro is rumored to be released at the same time. Institutions: By 2029, China's domestic computing power card purchases will reach 1.44 trillion yuan, and many listed companies with a market capitalization of trillion or even 10 trillion yuan will be created. Some varieties have already been catalysed last week, mainly looking at new directions.
The State Council agreed in principle to the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” for the Revitalization and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine to accelerate the modernization of traditional Chinese medicine and promote traditional Chinese medicine to the world. Innovative medicines are already available, and the traditional Chinese medicine category is something to pay attention to.
[This week's gold stocks]
Junda Co., Ltd. (02865)
The three satellites that are expected to be launched from the Tiangan River in the near future have all been shipped to the launch site. It is planned to launch it at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center with Jiayao 15 at the end of July. One of them is the Mu Xi computing power star from the Zhijiang Laboratory.
Pure computing power satellite Starhub 1 (Shanghai 15th Five-Year Key Project Thousand Computing Constellation Star Hub Project) is expected to be released in mid-late July. The design power is 30KW. One of the wings will use Jietai Aerospace's own gallium-arsenide energy solution.
The “Youyu” satellite launched to visit the Tiangan River in May was equipped with a flexible HJT for testing. Currently, the overall operation results are good, and the relevant data is expected to be gradually disclosed in the future.
Last week, this magazine reminded you to pay attention to Junda Co., Ltd. Junda shares have recently been adjusted, and the company's stock price has basically returned to its pre-commercial space position. In fact, Junda is progressing smoothly in satellite manufacturing and data services; samples of Shangrao CPI film have already been sent, and the sky tour will accelerate the testing of solar wing batteries and overall solutions. The launch of the Changshib rocket also constituted a catalyst.
[Industry Watch]
Research teams from research institutes conducted a round of field research on the domestic PCB industry in the Greater Bay Area, visited a number of upstream suppliers and manufacturing companies in the PCB industry chain, and invited industry experts to complete interviews, and sorted out the following core conclusions:
First, all parties in the industry chain are generally optimistic about the future long-term growth trend of AI PCBs. Ample on-hand orders combined with medium- to long-term visibility can form support for the development of the industry.
Second, PCBs compatible with Nvidia's Vera Rubin have now entered mass production, and the rack architecture corresponding to Kyber NLV144 is still in the process of parallel testing of multiple solutions.
Third, the iterative upgrading of optical module specifications and widespread adoption of the CoBOP design scheme will clearly drive market demand for the MSAP process.
Fourth, after the domestic AI infrastructure is upgraded, it is expected to bring incremental orders for high-end AI PCBs starting in 2027.
Fifth, the price trend of the copper-clad plate sector is fragmented. The price and supply situation of high-end copper-clad plates is relatively stable and manageable, and low-end copper-clad panels face prominent problems of supply shortages and excessive price increases; the research team is still optimistic about Shenghong Technology's leading position in the AIPCB segment. The company's production capacity expansion is steady and orderly, and it can undertake mass delivery tasks.
Hong Kong stocks focus on Shenghong Technology (02476), Dingtai Hi-Tech (01377), and Jiantao Laminate (01888).
[Data View]
According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of outstanding contracts in the Hang Seng Futures Index (July) was 12,3755, and the net number of outstanding positions was 4,3919. Hang Seng Futures refers to the settlement date of July 30, 2026.
The Hang Seng Index is at 24,175 points. The area where the upper bears are concentrated is close to the central axis, and the lower bullish market deviates, and Hong Kong stocks are motivated to go long. The capital market circuit changed, and the valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index+Hang Seng Biotech Index, which surpassed the previous decline. Hong Kong stocks followed the fluctuation of US stocks, and the Hang Seng Index continued to be bullish this week.
[Editor-in-Chief's Testimonial]
Looking ahead to the Hong Kong stock market next week, the current adjustment cycle may be further lengthened. The short-term disturbance comes more from the capital level than from industry fundamentals. Overseas leverage withdrawals are compounded by mainland capital constraints. Earnings from the technology sector are loose in the early stages, and market sentiment is prone to repeated fluctuations. Fluctuations will continue to test patience in holding positions.
The market is not only a financial game field, but also a reflection of industry trends. Short-term inflationary pressure at the macro level is limited, and the actual impact of the Middle East's geography on crude oil has yet to be verified, so there is no need to overamplify the risk. The core variable is still AI industry demand. The ARR growth momentum of downstream enterprises has not declined, and the long-term logic of the AI industry has not wavered.