Citi researchers said on Monday that even if the US and Iran agree to extend the cease-fire this week, and oil transportation and crude oil production in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by the end of June, global crude oil and refined oil products stocks may still be reduced by about 900 million barrels. Citi said the decline will include the 500 million barrel reduction that has already occurred, as well as a further 400 million barrel reduction due to delays in production capacity recovery, logistics bottlenecks, and related damage caused by conflicts. “Even if the conflict ends this week, global stocks of crude oil and refined oil products will fall to their lowest level in eight years by the end of June,” Citi said. Citi said that if transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue at the current level for another month, total inventory losses may rise to about 1.3 billion barrels. Under this scenario, the price of Brandt crude may be close to $110, $90, and $80 per barrel in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively. Citi said that if the outage is extended for two months, inventory losses may increase to about 1.7 billion barrels. According to data from about 25 years, this will reduce inventory to the lowest level on record, and the price will reach 130 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter.

Citi researchers said on Monday that even if the US and Iran agree to extend the cease-fire this week, and oil transportation and crude oil production in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by the end of June, global crude oil and refined oil products stocks may still be reduced by about 900 million barrels. Citi said the decline will include the 500 million barrel reduction that has already occurred, as well as a further 400 million barrel reduction due to delays in production capacity recovery, logistics bottlenecks, and related damage caused by conflicts. “Even if the conflict ends this week, global stocks of crude oil and refined oil products will fall to their lowest level in eight years by the end of June,” Citi said. Citi said that if transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue at the current level for another month, total inventory losses may rise to about 1.3 billion barrels. Under this scenario, the price of Brandt crude may be close to $110, $90, and $80 per barrel in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively. Citi said that if the outage is extended for two months, inventory losses may increase to about 1.7 billion barrels. According to data from about 25 years, this will reduce inventory to the lowest level on record, and the price will reach 130 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter.