CICC pointed out that after the effect of short-term factors boosting the US dollar subsides, the narrative of the restructuring of the global monetary order and the shaking hegemony of the US dollar may once again dominate the market direction: America's net foreign debt continues to accumulate, making it more demanding that the dollar depreciate; Trump's policy uncertainty is high, and the risk of “weaponization” of the US dollar has not been mitigated, and it is also depressing market demand for US assets. If implemented, the “downsizing” policy advocated by the new Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh would objectively help repair the dollar's credibility. However, Walsh's policies are constrained by the resilience and politics of the real economy and financial markets, and Trump's foreign, trade, and economic policies are still having a negative impact on the dollar's reputation. Considering the overall impact of Walsh and Trump's policies, it is impossible to draw a conclusion that the dollar's credibility will improve in the future. CICC expects that the global monetary order may continue to be restructured to push the US dollar to maintain a long-term depreciation trend.

CICC pointed out that after the effect of short-term factors boosting the US dollar subsides, the narrative of the restructuring of the global monetary order and the shaking hegemony of the US dollar may once again dominate the market direction: America's net foreign debt continues to accumulate, making it more demanding that the dollar depreciate; Trump's policy uncertainty is high, and the risk of “weaponization” of the US dollar has not been mitigated, and it is also depressing market demand for US assets. If implemented, the “downsizing” policy advocated by the new Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh would objectively help repair the dollar's credibility. However, Walsh's policies are constrained by the resilience and politics of the real economy and financial markets, and Trump's foreign, trade, and economic policies are still having a negative impact on the dollar's reputation. Considering the overall impact of Walsh and Trump's policies, it is impossible to draw a conclusion that the dollar's credibility will improve in the future. CICC expects that the global monetary order may continue to be restructured to push the US dollar to maintain a long-term depreciation trend.