Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For Ascentage Pharma Group International (HKG:6855) After Its Latest Results
Investors in Ascentage Pharma Group International (HKG:6855) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.7% to close at HK$45.96 following the release of its annual results. Revenue of CN¥574m came in 4.0% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of CN¥3.49, a 18% miss. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Ascentage Pharma Group International's eight analysts is for revenues of CN¥782.3m in 2026. This would reflect a sizeable 36% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory losses are expected to reduce, shrinking 13% from last year to CN¥3.80. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥1.74b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.48 in 2026. So we can see that the consensus has become notably more bearish on Ascentage Pharma Group International's outlook following these results, with a pretty serious reduction to next year's revenue estimates. Furthermore, they expect the business to be loss-making next year, compared to their previous calls for a profit.
View our latest analysis for Ascentage Pharma Group International
There was no major change to the consensus price target of HK$101, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Ascentage Pharma Group International, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$117 and the most bearish at HK$91.48 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ascentage Pharma Group International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 36% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 49% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 25% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ascentage Pharma Group International is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Ascentage Pharma Group International dropped from profits to a loss next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$101, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Ascentage Pharma Group International analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.