Assessing Orange’s (ENXTPA:ORA) Valuation After SafeCycloMove Smart Mobility Trial Success

Orange (ENXTPA:ORA) is in focus after taking part in the SafeCycloMove Collision Prevention live trial in Bordeaux, where its app integration helped support vehicle-to-everything alerts between buses and cyclists.

See our latest analysis for Orange.

For shareholders, Orange’s recent smart mobility work sits alongside a solid run in the market, with a 90 day share price return of 28.07% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 56.78%. This points to momentum that has also compounded into a 5 year total shareholder return of 134.98% at a current share price of €17.52.

If this kind of connected infrastructure story interests you, it could be worth broadening your search and checking out our screener of 24 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as another angle on long term network themes.

Yet with the shares near €17.52 and only a small 1% discount to the average analyst price target, alongside an estimated 45% intrinsic discount, the real question is whether Orange is still mispriced or whether markets are already baking in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.5% Overvalued

Orange’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of €15.85, which sits below the current €17.52 share price and frames the recent rally in a different light.

Sustained double digit revenue growth in Middle East and Africa for 10 consecutive quarters, combined with an ambition for double digit EBITDAaL growth in 2025, points to a growing contribution from these countries to group revenues and earnings.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is baked into that valuation call? The narrative leans heavily on gradual revenue progress, a sharp profit margin reset and a very different earnings base. Curious how those threads come together into a single fair value number?

Result: Fair Value of €15.85 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh French wholesale pressure and Italian IT softness, as well as any tougher antitrust remedies, all of which could challenge that overvaluation call.

Find out about the key risks to this Orange narrative.

Another View Using Our DCF Model

Analysts looking at Orange through earnings forecasts see the shares as roughly 10.5% overvalued at a fair value of €15.85. Our DCF model provides a different perspective, with a future cash flow value of €31.88, which implies Orange is trading at a 45% discount. Which perspective do you think better reflects the risk and cash flow profile?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Orange for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 225 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If you are torn between the different signals in this article, take a moment to review the numbers yourself and decide what stands out most to you. Then use our breakdown of 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs to quickly see how those mixed signals line up with the key concerns and potential upsides the market is watching.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you are still weighing up Orange, give yourself a broader set of options by scanning other opportunities on Simply Wall Street before you make your next move.

• Target potential mispricing by reviewing companies our tools flag as 225 high quality undervalued stocks with solid fundamentals already reflected in the data.
• Lock in income ideas by checking out businesses we group as 467 dividend fortresses so you can focus on cash returns, not just share price moves.
• Prioritise durability by scanning 299 resilient stocks with low risk scores and see which companies currently pair lower risk scores with more resilient profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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