Guojin Securities: Continue to focus on “space photovoltaics” as one of the strongest power generation main lines through 2026

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that it will continue to focus on “space photovoltaics” as one of the strongest telecommunications mainlines throughout 2026. When the power platform cost of the computing power satellite + launch cost + the manufacturing premium of the space cabinet compared to the ground cabinet is less than the terrestrial electricity cost, the space computing power will have a cost performance advantage. The measurement results show that this goal is completely attainable. At the same time, considering that the current North American terrestrial data center grid access cycle has been extended to 5 years or more, the bank believes that the deployment of space data centers will more smoothly and rapidly promote the improvement of global AI computing power and the development of related downstream applications, thus bringing a broader demand scenario to the space photovoltaic market.

Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:

Short-term: It is estimated that the installed capacity of space photovoltaics will be close to 500 MW in 2026. In the next 2-3 years, driven by global broadband coverage and demand for direct-connected terminals, communication satellites are expected to be the main increase in satellite launches. Judging from the evolution of satellite power, the single star power of communication satellites is moving from the current tens of kilowatts to 100 kW. The theoretical power of Starlink V2 full-size single stars is expected to exceed 50 kW, and the country is also actively promoting the development of 50-100 kW ultra-high power power systems. Judging from the number of launches, the number of global small satellites launched per year is showing a rapid growth trend. In 2025, the number of global satellite launches exceeded 4,000, with a growth rate of more than 50%. Among them, SpaceX and China's satellite launches accounted for 77%/7% respectively, and constellation construction is entering the engineering stage at an accelerated pace. The bank assumes that global satellite launches will maintain an annual growth rate of 50% in the short term. Considering that the power of a single star will increase as the solar wing area expands, the installed capacity of global space photovoltaics is expected to reach 413/1426/4277 MW in 2026-2028.

Mid-term: “Computing power to heaven” is fully economically viable. The current computing power constellation application plan corresponds to the total installed demand for space photovoltaics exceeding 100 GW. In the next 3-5 years, in a context where terrestrial AI data centers are constrained by resource bottlenecks such as electricity, land, and heat dissipation, computing power satellites will become a new growth pole for commercial space launches after communication satellites. The bank's calculations revealed that in the total investment of terrestrial data centers other than IT equipment, electricity costs and infrastructure investment each account for almost 50%; when the total investment in the entire life cycle of the space data center is level with the ground, the ratio of launch costs/power platform/other satellite costs is about 1%/9%/90%. Among them, the bank assumes that the satellite launch cost falls to 10 US dollars/kg as Musk expected. At this time, the price of PV modules required to achieve “space computing power parity” is about 1.3 US dollars/W, which is still 10 times the price of terrestrial PV modules! Moreover, the barriers to the space photovoltaic industry are significantly higher than the ground, and the profit level is expected to be higher than that of ordinary photovoltaic products. “Computing power to heaven” is feasible in terms of cost comparison, has certain advantages in terms of construction cycle, and is naturally adaptable in terms of space scenarios. Considering that both China and the US currently have large-scale computing power satellite deployment plans, if 100% launch capacity is achieved, the total demand for installed space photovoltaics is expected to exceed 100 GW.

Long-term: The construction of bases on the Moon and Mars will open up a new incremental market for space photovoltaics. Guided by Musk's long-term plan to “build a lunar city within 10 years and a Martian city within 20 years,” human space activity is extending from near-Earth orbit to extraterrestrial objects, and the lunar base may be the first to become the core carrier for the next phase of space exploration. Currently, countries are actively promoting the construction of a lunar base. As the lunar base moves from planning to project implementation, the application scenarios of space photovoltaics will expand from satellite power systems to energy security systems for extraterrestrial residences and industrial facilities, opening up more long-term development space for the space photovoltaic industry.

In response to investment opportunities in space photovoltaics brought about by commercial space acceleration and space computing power planning, the bank focuses on three major directions: 1) overall satellite related manufacturing; 2) space photovoltaic equipment and cell suppliers; and 3) suppliers of special packaging materials for space environments.

Risk warning: The development of the commercial aerospace industry falls short of expectations, and the iteration of battery technology falls short of expectations.