Do New AI Chip Export Risks Undermine Applied Materials' (AMAT) S&P 100 Moment?

• In late February 2026, Applied Materials presented at the SPIE Advanced Lithography and Patterning Conference, while investor sentiment turned cautious amid an Erste Group hold rating, renewed geopolitical tensions, and fresh scrutiny over potential global AI-chip export controls.
• These developments arrived just as Applied Materials was being added to the S&P 100 and highlighting its central role in supplying equipment for AI chip manufacturing, underscoring how index inclusion and industry importance can coexist with rising regulatory and geopolitical risk.
• Next, we’ll examine how rising export-control and geopolitical risks interact with Applied Materials’ AI-driven growth narrative and customer concentration.

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Applied Materials Investment Narrative Recap

To own Applied Materials today, you have to believe that AI-driven demand for advanced chips and tools will outweigh rising regulatory and geopolitical pressures. In the near term, the key catalyst is continued strength in orders tied to AI infrastructure, while the most immediate risk is tighter export scrutiny that could limit sales to key regions. Recent volatility around potential global AI-chip export controls reinforces that risk, but does not yet appear to fundamentally change the core demand story.

The upcoming addition of Applied Materials to the S&P 100 is the announcement that stands out most here. It highlights how central the company has become to AI chip manufacturing, even as headlines focus on export rules and geopolitical shocks. Index inclusion can support demand for the shares from passive funds, but it does not reduce underlying exposure to export licensing, customer concentration, or swings in semiconductor capital spending.

Yet while AI demand and index inclusion look attractive, investors should be aware that export-control uncertainty and customer concentration could still...

Read the full narrative on Applied Materials (it's free!)

Applied Materials' narrative projects $32.5 billion revenue and $9.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.4 billion earnings increase from $6.8 billion today.

Uncover how Applied Materials' forecasts yield a $398.73 fair value, a 23% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were expecting revenue to reach about US$35.2 billion and earnings around US$9.8 billion, which is a far more upbeat view than the cautious focus on export controls and competition in Asia that the recent news brings back into focus.

Explore 22 other fair value estimates on Applied Materials - why the stock might be worth as much as 45% more than the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Applied Materials research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Applied Materials research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Applied Materials' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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