Super Week Arrives: Trump's Tariff Turbulence + Iran Situation Heats Up, Heavy Economic Data and Nvidia (NVDA.US) Earnings Stir the Market

The Zhitong Finance App learned that in the past week, the policy side dominated market attention, and Friday ushered in the highly anticipated Supreme Court ruling, which rejected US President Trump's large-scale tariff system. Subsequently, Trump quickly signed a 10% global tariff to counter the Supreme Court ruling, and posted on social media on the 21st that the “global import tariff” rate announced the day before would be raised from 10% to 15% on goods exported to the US. The global trading system is further facing many challenges to stabilizing policies and growth, and undercurrents are constantly changing.

On Friday, boosted by the Supreme Court ruling, the three major stock indexes all turned higher, and eventually the above rise came to an end. The S&P 500 index rebounded, closing up 0.7%, with a cumulative increase of 1.1% last week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is concentrated in blue chips, rose 0.5% on Friday and rose slightly by 0.3% last week; the Nasdaq Composite Index, which concentrates on technology stocks, rose 0.9% on Friday, with a cumulative increase of 1.3% last week.

Oil prices closed up about 5.5% last week, mainly because traders have taken into account the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East if the US attacks Iran, which has brought the energy product's return to about 11% this month.

Economic data and important financial reports

The focus of this week's economic data schedule is Friday's Producer Price Index (PPI). As inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target interest rate, the data will provide investors with a reading on upstream investment costs.

According to the latest personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index data released earlier, overall prices and the “core” PCE (the inflation index favored by the Federal Reserve), which does not include food and energy, both rose 0.4% month-on-month in December, an increase over November.

Investors will also receive consumer confidence readings from the World Federation of Major Businesses on Tuesday, and more employment data on Wednesday through the number of jobless claims and renewals at the beginning of each week. The market is trying to sort out the labor market situation. Additionally, US President Trump will deliver his State of the Union address on Tuesday.

On the corporate side, everyone is watching Nvidia (NVDA.US)'s fourth quarter results. The report will be released after the market on Wednesday. The financial report of the chip manufacturing giant with the highest market capitalization in the world will be a key weather vane for measuring the state of artificial intelligence (AI) transactions.

Wednesday's CRM.US (CRM.US) results will also provide a reference for measuring the sell-off in the software sector, which hit the entire industry hard in February. Home Depot (HD.US) and Low.US (LOW.US), which announced results on Tuesday and Wednesday, will provide investors with alternative indicators to observe the real estate market; while the financial reports of Constellation Energy (CEG.US) and Domini Resources (D.US) will help to better understand the state of the US electricity market.

Tariff Ruling Updates

Investors and the White House finally waited for nearly a year's ruling on Friday, even though they soon faced another “big change of face” by Trump. The US Supreme Court rejected a large part of US President Trump's large-scale tariff system with a 6-3 vote last Friday, ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the president the power to levy broad tariffs on other countries, which is an impact on the government's economy and foreign policy.

Within a few minutes after the ruling was announced, the stock market reversed its initial decline during Friday's trading session and turned slightly higher. The market reacted positively to the decision.

“The market's lackluster reaction to the Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs shows that this has largely been digested by the market,” Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, said in an email comment. Since IEEPA tariffs account for about 60% of the tariffs imposed, the ruling's impact on the economy is limited.”

However, potential tax refund issues were not addressed. According to one estimate, the total amount of tax refunds could be as high as $175 billion. The matter will now go to the Washington DC Trade Court, but companies that rely on imports may immediately begin filing these tax refund claims with the US Customs and Border Protection.

At a press conference last Friday, Trump said that as the administration moves to other measures to replace the vetoed IEEPA tariffs, the White House will immediately implement a “10% global tariff... on top of the normal tariffs already imposed” under section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act.

“We will underestimate the short-term backlash brought about by the Supreme Court ruling, as the Trump administration will quickly switch to a different legal basis to implement alternative tariffs, and the fiscal deficit will widen further during this period,” Jeff Buchbinder, chief stock strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in an email comment.

“However, if lower tariffs help cool down inflation, it may reinforce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year,” he added.

Notably, after the US Supreme Court ruled on Trump's large-scale tariff policy last Friday, US President Trump quickly issued a new executive order announcing the imposition of 10% import tariffs on goods from all countries and regions starting February 24, 2026, and announced a day later to raise this newly imposed “global import tariff” rate from 10% to 15%.

The “scale and consequences” of the situation in Iran

Oil prices, which showed a steady downward trend in 2025, have risen 15% since the beginning of 2026. This is due in large part to the tense situation in Iran.

Over the past month, Washington and Tehran have been negotiating a new nuclear deal aimed at limiting the Iranian regime's ability to manufacture nuclear weapons. Trump said on Thursday that Iran has 10 days to reach an agreement with the US, which has increased the possibility of military action.

According to reports, Trump said on Friday EST that he is considering carrying out an “initial limited military attack” on Iran to force Iran to accept the demands of the US side regarding the nuclear deal. Recent developments show that US and Iranian negotiators are expected to meet in Geneva this Thursday. Trump is inclined to carry out an initial attack on Iraq in the next few days, and a larger attack may be launched in the next few months.

Although Iran has the world's third-largest proven crude oil reserves and ranks among the top ten oil producers in the world, the oil market is most concerned about the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping port where about 20 million barrels of petroleum products pass through its waters every day.

Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said that if America's actions were small and targeted, oil prices could briefly soar by about $10 per barrel and then quickly fall back to rebalance.

Leon said that if the US turns to continued military action — particularly if this triggers serious retaliation from Iran, such as attacks on the region's oil infrastructure — the market could see “a continuous increase in prices (around) $15 per barrel.”

“If the market starts to seriously consider the possibility of a US attack on Iran in the next few weeks, the market's reaction will depend more on the scale and consequences of the action than on the political narrative itself,” Capital analyst Daniela Hathorn said in an email comment.

Hathorn said that even without immediate military action, “long-term uncertainty alone is enough to maintain the geopolitical risk premium.”