Some Confidence Is Lacking In Cochlear Limited (ASX:COH) As Shares Slide 26%

Cochlear Limited (ASX:COH) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 26% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 24% in that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, Cochlear may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 37.7x, since almost half of all companies in Australia have P/E ratios under 20x and even P/E's lower than 12x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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Cochlear hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Cochlear

Keen to find out how analysts think Cochlear's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Cochlear's Growth Trending?

Cochlear's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 6.7%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 33% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 18% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 17% each year, which is not materially different.

With this information, we find it interesting that Cochlear is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Cochlear's shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Cochlear currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is only in line with the wider market. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Cochlear with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.