Yan Lingyi, a fixed income analyst at Zhongtai Securities, predicts that the 2026 10-year treasury bond yield range may be between 1.7% and 2.1%, and that the center of interest spreads on 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds may return to around 50 basis points. This judgment not only reflects a comprehensive consideration of the macroeconomic and policy environment, but also reflects changes in institutional allocation behavior. Since December of last year, the market's biggest concern is still the supply and demand issue of ultra-long-term bonds. At present, insurance funds and the ability of large banks to carry ultra-long-term bonds have clearly lagged behind the supply-side expansion rate. This has directly caused the interest rate curve to show obvious steeper characteristics in the process of rising yields.

Yan Lingyi, a fixed income analyst at Zhongtai Securities, predicts that the 2026 10-year treasury bond yield range may be between 1.7% and 2.1%, and that the center of interest spreads on 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds may return to around 50 basis points. This judgment not only reflects a comprehensive consideration of the macroeconomic and policy environment, but also reflects changes in institutional allocation behavior. Since December of last year, the market's biggest concern is still the supply and demand issue of ultra-long-term bonds. At present, insurance funds and the ability of large banks to carry ultra-long-term bonds have clearly lagged behind the supply-side expansion rate. This has directly caused the interest rate curve to show obvious steeper characteristics in the process of rising yields.