Assessing Bank First (BFC) Valuation As Recent Share Weakness Meets Mixed P/E And DCF Signals

Bank First (BFC) has drawn fresh attention after recent share performance, including a 6.6% decline over the past month and a 5.5% decline over the past 3 months, despite solid longer term returns.

See our latest analysis for Bank First.

That recent 6.6% 1 month share price decline and 5.5% 3 month share price decline sit against a far stronger picture in the background, with a 32.1% 1 year total shareholder return pointing to fading short term momentum after substantial gains.

If Bank First’s moves have you reassessing your portfolio, this can be a good moment to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Bank First trading at $122 and carrying an estimated intrinsic discount of around 30%, plus room to analyst targets, the real question is whether this pullback signals a fresh opportunity or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Price-to-Earnings of 17.1x: Is it justified?

On a P/E of 17.1x at a US$122 share price, Bank First trades at a richer earnings multiple than many peers, which raises questions about what the market is pricing in.

The P/E ratio compares the current share price to earnings per share and is a common yardstick for banks, where earnings power and return on equity matter a lot. A higher P/E typically reflects stronger growth expectations or perceived quality, while a lower P/E can suggest the opposite.

For Bank First, the market is assigning a premium P/E despite comments that earnings growth over the past year was negative and net profit margins compressed from 44.8% to 41.6%. That premium sits above an estimated fair P/E of 15x. This is a level some investors might see as a more neutral reference point that the market could move toward if expectations shift.

Compared to the US Banks industry average P/E of 11.9x and a peer average of 12.5x, Bank First’s 17.1x stands out as materially higher. That stronger valuation signal suggests investors are currently paying meaningfully more per dollar of earnings than they are for many bank peers.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Bank First

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 17.1x (OVERVALUED)

However, you still have to weigh risks such as compressed net profit margins and the possibility that premium P/E expectations reset closer to peers or fair value estimates.

Find out about the key risks to this Bank First narrative.

Another View: DCF Points to Undervaluation

While the 17.1x P/E suggests Bank First screens as expensive against peers and a 15x fair ratio, our DCF model points in the opposite direction. On that view, the shares at US$122 sit around 30.1% below an estimated fair value of US$174.49, raising very different questions about risk and opportunity.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Bank First for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 884 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Bank First Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a complete view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Bank First.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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