A Look At Mattel (MAT) Valuation After Recent Share Price Strength

Mattel (MAT) has attracted fresh attention after screening as a value candidate, with recent share performance and fundamentals prompting investors to reassess how its toy and family entertainment business is currently being priced.

See our latest analysis for Mattel.

At a share price of $21.63, Mattel has recently seen a 9.02% 7-day share price return and a 19.50% 90-day share price return, while its 1-year total shareholder return sits at 17.36%. These figures may be influencing how investors think about its current valuation.

If Mattel has caught your eye, it can be useful to widen the lens and compare it with other fast growing stocks with high insider ownership that might also be showing improving sentiment.

With Mattel trading at $21.63 alongside an indicated intrinsic discount of 52.67% and a modest value score of 5, the big question is whether the market is overlooking its toy and entertainment earnings power or is already factoring in future growth.

Price-to-Earnings of 15.6x: Is it justified?

Mattel's last close at $21.63 equates to a P/E of 15.6x, which screens as good value compared with both peers and the broader Global Leisure industry.

The P/E multiple tells you how much investors are currently paying for each dollar of earnings, which is particularly relevant for an established, profitable consumer brand group like Mattel. With earnings forecast to grow 6% per year and high quality earnings flagged, a mid-teens P/E sits in a range many investors associate with mature, cash generative businesses rather than high growth names.

Against that backdrop, Mattel's P/E of 15.6x stands well below the peer average of 31.5x and the Global Leisure industry average of 22.1x. This gap signals the market is pricing its earnings at a clear discount. At the same time, the current P/E is very close to the estimated fair P/E of 15.7x. This suggests the multiple is already near the level our fair ratio work points to as a potential anchor over time.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Mattel

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 15.6x (UNDERVALUED)

However, that discount can quickly look justified if branded toy demand softens or if licensed partnerships fail to translate into consistent, high margin earnings.

Find out about the key risks to this Mattel narrative.

Another view using our DCF model

While the 15.6x P/E points to reasonable pricing, our DCF model tells a stronger story, with an estimated fair value of $45.70 compared to the current $21.63 share price. That gap signals a very different read on what Mattel’s cash flows might be worth. Which signal would you pay more attention to?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Mattel for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 884 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Mattel Narrative

If you look at this data and reach different conclusions, or prefer to run your own checks, you can quickly build a custom view yourself with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Mattel research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you want broader context around Mattel, it helps to see how other themes are shaping up, and the Simply Wall St screener makes that quick and focused.

• Spot early growth stories by scanning these 3545 penny stocks with strong financials that combine smaller market sizes with stronger balance sheets and improving fundamentals.
• Target future focused themes by tracking these 26 AI penny stocks that sit at the intersection of artificial intelligence, data, and scalable business models.
• Zero in on pricing opportunities by reviewing these 884 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that currently trade below estimates based on their cash flow profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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