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    BioNTech (BNTX) Is Up 5.1% After 90%-Effective COVID Data Raises New Franchise Questions

    Simply Wall St·01/08/2026 03:29:33
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    • In late 2025, Pfizer and BioNTech reported that their jointly developed COVID-19 vaccine showed over 90% effectiveness in preventing infection based on initial clinical data, while scientists highlighted that questions remained about its ability to prevent severe disease and its long-term durability.
    • This early efficacy signal marked a potential turning point in controlling the pandemic, yet it also underscored how limited data can leave crucial medical and commercial uncertainties unresolved.
    • Next, we'll examine how this early, over-90%-effective vaccine data shapes BioNTech's investment narrative and alters perceptions of its COVID-19 franchise.

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    BioNTech Investment Narrative Recap

    To own BioNTech, you need to believe its mRNA platform can convert a COVID-19 windfall into a durable pipeline, particularly in oncology, while the company absorbs ongoing losses. The over 90% initial COVID-19 vaccine efficacy data supports short term revenue visibility, but lingering questions on severe disease protection and durability keep the main near term risk in focus: how quickly COVID-19 demand may fade and how reliant BioNTech remains on this one franchise.

    Among recent announcements, the December 2025 PresERVE-003 data for gotistobart (BNT316/ONC-392) in advanced lung cancer stands out against this vaccine news. While the COVID-19 results shape perceptions of BioNTech’s infectious disease credentials, the encouraging overall survival signal and FDA Fast Track status for gotistobart are more directly tied to the key medium term catalyst: whether BioNTech can turn its oncology portfolio into a meaningful, non COVID revenue pillar.

    Yet, beneath the promising headlines, investors should also be aware of how sustained high R&D spending and ongoing net losses could...

    Read the full narrative on BioNTech (it's free!)

    BioNTech's narrative projects €2.8 billion revenue and €398.3 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how BioNTech's forecasts yield a $137.91 fair value, a 38% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    BNTX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    BNTX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Three members of the Simply Wall St Community currently place BioNTech’s fair value between US$101.78 and US$174.10, underlining how far apart individual views can be. Against this spread, the heavy R&D spend and reliance on uncertain COVID-19 revenues highlight why you may want to compare several perspectives before forming your own view.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on BioNTech - why the stock might be worth just $101.78!

    Build Your Own BioNTech Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your BioNTech research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free BioNTech research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate BioNTech's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.