Shen Wan Hongyuan: Maintaining the GeRabbit Express-W (01519) “Gain” Rating and Growing Business Volume in Southeast Asia and New Markets

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shen Wan Hongyuan released a research report saying that it raised the profit forecast for Jitu Express - W (01519) and maintained the “gain” rating. The company's volume in Southeast Asia and new markets in the fourth quarter surpassed expectations. As a result, the bank raised Jitu Express's 25E-27E profit forecast. The company's adjusted net profit for 25-27 years was US$3.87/6.02/888 million, respectively (the original assumption was that 25E-27E adjusted net profit was US$3.68/5.92/US$853 million), up 93.01%/55.69%/47.47%, respectively. The corresponding PE was 33x/21x/15x, respectively.

Shen Wan Hongyuan's main views are as follows:

Incident: Goku Express released operating data for the fourth quarter of '25. The company's overall package volume in the fourth quarter reached 8.461 billion, up 14.5% year on year. Among them, the number of packages in Southeast Asia reached 2,436 billion, up 73.6% year on year; China's package volume reached 5.891 billion, down 0.4% year on year; and the number of packages in the new market reached 134 million, up 79.7% year on year.

Polar Rabbit continues to grow at a high rate in Southeast Asia, stabilizing its leading position in the industry

The company's parcel volume in Southeast Asia continued to grow at a high rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching 73.6%. In 2025, the company's package volume in Southeast Asia reached 7.66 billion pieces, an increase of 67.8% over the previous year. It mainly benefited from e-commerce platforms continuing to increase investment in Southeast Asia in the fourth quarter, continuously enriching categories and promoting rapid traffic growth through promotional activities. At the same time, Jitu relied on cost efficiency advantages to meet the diverse needs of different e-commerce platforms, and its market share continued to rise. The bank is optimistic that the company will maintain its leading edge in the Southeast Asia region in the future and has a stable position in the industry.

Express delivery networks in new markets are gradually being improved, and business volume is growing at an accelerated pace

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company's business volume in the new market reached 130 million units, an increase of 79.7% over the previous year. The annual business volume reached 404 million units, an increase of 43.6% over the previous year. It is mainly due to the gradual improvement of the company's express delivery network, which can handle more business volume on e-commerce platforms. In '25, the company built 9 new transit centers in the new market, added 80 of its own main line transport vehicles, and added 9 sets of automated sorting lines to improve operational efficiency and service quality in the new market.